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Now What For The UK ?

Started by June 24, 2016 04:21 AM
104 comments, last by ApochPiQ 8 years, 7 months ago

Of course, amusingly, Leave have now said there is no hurry to exit

That's a real shitty move though, if I'm allowed to say.

First, Leave been stirring it all up and Cameron promises "ifmit gets through, I will hand in atricle 50 the next day", and now... now they are delaying this to noend, which is massively bad. I have to assume it's done on purpose, to destabilize the EU and get a better placement (relatively) for the UK.

No problem with you guy leaving if that is what you want. No hard feelings. Really, if you want out, no problem, here's the door. It's not like there's a point in trying to hold back someone who doesn't want to stay anyway.

But this kind of FUD which is now being deliberately generated is just what's extremely bad for an economy. Today, some Sir Whateverhisname was on TV, and he basically said that it was hard to find someone who is willing to hand in the papers, and maybe nobody will, and it remains to be seen what the parliament says about it.

That... that is really "What the fuck?!". You're most welcome to stay and you're most welcome to leave. But making a big drama about leaving and then delaying it for months while alleging that maybe it's not happening, that's a really shitty thing to do. Economy needs facts to plan on, not FUD.

Of course, amusingly, Leave have now said there is no hurry to exit

That's a real shitty move though, if I'm allowed to say.

First, Leave been stirring it all up and Cameron promises "ifmit gets through, I will hand in atricle 50 the next day", and now... now they are delaying this to no end, which is massively bad. I have to assume it's done on purpose, to destabilize the EU and get a better placement (relatively) for the UK.

No problem with you guy leaving if that is what you want. No hard feelings. Really, if you want out, no problem, here's the door. It's not like there's a point in trying to hold back someone who doesn't want to stay anyway.

But this kind of FUD which is now being deliberately generated is just what's extremely bad for an economy. Today, some Sir Whateverhisname was on TV, and he basically said that it was hard to find someone who is willing to hand in the papers, and maybe nobody will, and it remains to be seen what the parliament says about it.

That... that is really "What the fuck?!". You're most welcome to stay and you're most welcome to leave. But making a big drama about leaving and then delaying it for months while alleging that maybe it's not happening, that's a really shitty thing to do. Economy needs facts to plan on, not FUD.

^^^This - EXACTLY

Though I had thought the EU in its current form doesn't work (reasons stated here) and a radically reformed EU would be best. But since Brussels politicians were so reluctant and negative about any kind of radical reform, I backed "leave campaign".

But now I and probably millions of others wish we hadn't backed "leave campaign" because these "politicians" have now suddenly turned to cowards, they are now so reluctant, so slow to start the process of leaving and lack any form of courage. WTF!!!.

Now they are not so much in a hurry anymore... We hear statements like "nothing is going to change", "no need to rush", "process could take 10 years". The enthusiasm to leave EU now seems limp. Yes David Cameron (even though he campaigned to remain), his > four months delay is very bad, bad for business, bad for the economy and bad for the remaining EU countries

And the "leave camp" are doing nothing to pull him out of his guilt for calling the referendum in the first place- and hasten things up. You now have the feelings they never believed in what they were preaching in the first instance or never really analysed what it would take to leave the Union before starting the campaign... It now seems they were just playing a HUGE political game just for the sake of politics.

Right now I wish I could line them up and execute them all

can't help being grumpy...

Just need to let some steam out, so my head doesn't explode...

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Of course, amusingly, Leave have now said there is no hurry to exit

That's a real shitty move though, if I'm allowed to say.


Yep, you are, because it is.

I was on the remain side of the argument, but we've made our choice and now we should get on with it.

Boris has now gone on record as saying he wants to intensify EU co-operation.

It's slowly turning in to a situation where 72% of the people voted, but 100% of the people are going to be unhappy... (well, apart from all the racists; those guys now seem to think they have the country's backing to do what the fuck they like...)

Yes, but there isn't any requirement for it to be done again.

There is a petition, which ironically was started by a leave campaigner when it looked like they might lose and has since be 'hijacked' by remainers, and while it isn't unheard of to set the requirements for a vote to pass this is generally done BEFORE the vote is held. (Also, parliament isn't required to pay attention to it, the wording on the site says 'consider' when it reaches a threshold.)

There is basically no legal requirement for a rerun of this vote.

The trajectory is pretty set at this point; House of Commons debates and votes on it; in theory at this point they can vote it down if they do not believe it is in the best interests of the country (chances are MPs in areas which voted against will carry this in to the House), but you have a 'will of the people' problem and doing so could be political suicide. Then it has to go to the House Of Lords; at which point they can also kick it back if they believe it isn't in the country's best interests - they aren't so tied to political issues/will of the people problems as those people are basically in for life - so in theory it could stop there... the outcome of which would be interesting on its own.

At which point, assuming someone decides to take the poisioned leadership of the Government and become PM, Article 50 could be invoked and the clock starts on exit. However, unless the votes before put a time line on it then the new PM/Government wouldn't have to do this right away, however that would piss off business, the MPs who wanted out, around 1/3 of the population and, of course, the EU.

Which is why the PM job right now is something I doubt anyone wants; if you don't Brexit you get a revolt of your party and people. If you do Brexit you get hammered at the next election. (Someone explained this much better than me, but it's why Boris and Gove weren't dancing in the streets on Friday...).

Welcome to limbo :D

Well said.

I think Boris and Gove were both in it for their careers and didn't believe leave would win - with a remain vote still putting them in a good position to win the next election.

Given that article 50 has a fixed 2 year time limit, it makes sense not to hit that button immediately - hitting that sooner doesn't speed up the negotiations, it just reduces the possible time for negotiations.
It would seem to make sense to figure out what the plan is before triggering article 50 - since leave campaigners don't seem to have a clue what the plan is, with opinions being divided, and the referendum itself posing no plan, no wonder it's chaos. Perhaps a strategy should have been planned before putting the question to the people.
Looks like Boris's proposal is "British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down." whilst people from the EU coming to the UK have to follow a points based immigration system.
The UK will still have access to the common market, whilst not paying in any money or following any of the EU rules.
Also he wants the moon on a stick, and to have his cake and eat it.

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Given that article 50 has a fixed 2 year time limit, it makes sense not to hit that button immediately - hitting that sooner doesn't speed up the negotiations, it just reduces the possible time for negotiations.
It would seem to make sense to figure out what the plan is before triggering article 50 - since leave campaigners don't seem to have a clue what the plan is, with opinions being divided, and the referendum itself posing no plan, no wonder it's chaos. Perhaps a strategy should have been planned before putting the question to the people.
Looks like Boris's proposal is "British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down." whilst people from the EU coming to the UK have to follow a points based immigration system.
The UK will still have access to the common market, whilst not paying in any money or following any of the EU rules.
Also he wants the moon on a stick, and to have his cake and eat it.

Other countries are going to want to keep trade open with them, they have the 5th largest world economy. Any country to deny trade with them simply because they are not a club member would be daft(as the English like to say). A set of trade regulations will be set up with everyone involved and life will continue as normal. They are not taking advantage of a system. Besides, the main issue was the rule of the people and losing their country to politicians who are not even of their kinship.

British people want Brits to make decisions for their country. Really not that crazy of a thought. Would you be ok with your next door neighbor regulating your daily routine? Telling you to turn your lights off at night or what color you can paint your house, which group of friends you can have over for a party or what television channels you can watch? These are completely arbitrary examples, but the point stands.

And how can people be surprised at delays and the fact that this is going to take time for Britain to mold their newly reformed political system into something tangible? Your are laughing at the Leave movement as nonsensical and with out plan, but governments do not form overnight, even if they have already be previously established in a different shape or form.

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Given that article 50 has a fixed 2 year time limit, it makes sense not to hit that button immediately - hitting that sooner doesn't speed up the negotiations, it just reduces the possible time for negotiations.


Unfortunately the EU has said there will be nothing talked about, either formally or informally, until we invoke Article 50.

The deadline can be extended however, and I suspect people will want to do so on both sides if we don't have most of the deals worked out.

The wrinkle in all this is 2020. That is the next general election date - the Tory's will want to stay in power of course, but they also have to trigger A50; They also need to pull their party back together before the election which means they really need to invoke it sooner rather than later to get on with thing - trying to delay it too long could cause problems internally which is the last thing they need, even if Labour are ripping themselves to pieces.

Other countries are going to want to keep trade open with them, they have the 5th largest world economy. Any country to deny trade with them simply because they are not a club member would be daft(as the English like to say). A set of trade regulations will be set up with everyone involved and life will continue as normal. They are not taking advantage of a system. Besides, the main issue was the rule of the people and losing their country to politicians who are not even of their kinship.


Of course, although you should have said 'currently have', at one point Friday the UK dropped behind France. The pound is still sliding, shares are down and the AAA rating is now completely gone along with a 'negative' outlook. And this is before we start to talk - depending on who is in power that could trigger a second shock in a few months.

But yes; trade will happen the only question is what is the nature of that trade - do we end up looking like Norway and have no boarder control beyond what we have, or do we fall back to WTO fees and EEA so the banks will stay as they are, or do we end up on WTO with the banks exiting so they can work in the Eurozone and potentially lose other industry. The key point is we don't know and can't know until a new PM is put in place to trigger the process.

And there was no 'main issue' beyond those that people selected for themselves.
For some it was "rule from Brussels".
For others it was the NHS not having enough money.
For some it was immigration and the desire to 'send them home' (often tied up in the former problem).
A friend of mine simply didn't like how the laws were structured.
Others simply wanted to undo their vote in the 1970s without a damn about what happens. (One women even said "I voted out, I know it wont impact me but I worry about my grandchildren now" which is like... arrgh...)

There was no single unifying issue which everyone got around; some simply wanted to punish the government and/or protest the EU... and then got a shock when it turned out their vote counted :lol:

British people want Brits to make decisions for their country.


Some did.
Some had other issues on their mind.

To put this in context leave won by 1.2 million votes.
But this is still only around 1/3 of those who could vote.

This was not, by any means, a unified cry for independence from the British people - it was the outcome of a nasty, misleading, and down right joke of a debate on a highly important issue where is seem people didn't know or understand what they were voting on or the impact it would have.

This is why it is such a mess; it has divided, it has enraged, it has inflamed and it has left the government and the people more divided than we have been for some time to come.

The markets slide.
The pound slides.
Boris did say earlier they were stable which was funny...

In a way we are lucky; many people over the years wanted to watch the world burn - we get to see at least one country start a fire under itself...


That's a real shitty move though, if I'm allowed to say.

Yep, you are, because it is.

I was on the remain side of the argument, but we've made our choice and now we should get on with it.

Boris has now gone on record as saying he wants to intensify EU co-operation.

It's slowly turning in to a situation where 72% of the people voted, but 100% of the people are going to be unhappy... (well, apart from all the racists; those guys now seem to think they have the country's backing to do what the fuck they like...)

This whole racists point of view on the argument just mystifies me. This is the same mentality a lot people are taking in the US as well, that if you have issues with immigrants, you are racist. I would argue that people don't give two thoughts to the color of your skin, people care about culture, values, ethics and any other number of defining moral characteristics. Very often, these things don't always align with the majority of the population. You are lying to yourself if you think otherwise.

I want you to define racism, how you view it in your mind, not a copy-past from the dictionary.

People love to shout racism like it means something. Half the time it doesn't. Nobody in their right mind condones racism as viewed on a moral or ethical level, NOBODY. Different cultures are expected to assimilate to their host country. Does that make people racist if that's what they expect?

Other countries are going to want to keep trade open with them, they have the 5th largest world economy. Any country to deny trade with them simply because they are not a club member would be daft(as the English like to say). A set of trade regulations will be set up with everyone involved and life will continue as normal. They are not taking advantage of a system. Besides, the main issue was the rule of the people and losing their country to politicians who are not even of their kinship.


Of course, although you should have said 'currently have', at one point Friday the UK dropped behind France. The pound is still sliding, shares are down and the AAA rating is now completely gone along with a 'negative' outlook. And this is before we start to talk - depending on who is in power that could trigger a second shock in a few months.

But yes; trade will happen the only question is what is the nature of that trade - do we end up looking like Norway and have no boarder control beyond what we have, or do we fall back to WTO fees and EEA so the banks will stay as they are, or do we end up on WTO with the banks exiting so they can work in the Eurozone and potentially lose other industry. The key point is we don't know and can't know until a new PM is put in place to trigger the process.

British people want Brits to make decisions for their country.



The markets slide.
The pound slides.
Boris did say earlier they were stable which was funny...

In a way we are lucky; many people over the years wanted to watch the world burn - we get to see at least one country start a fire under itself...

The pound is going to recover. History shows this. There is going to be a major dip In the market due to speculation and unknowns(same as when any major world event occurs), but the market regulates itself and the pound will recover until it finds a floating point and becomes competitive again.

This issue is pretty black and white when you look at it realistically. Of course a lot of details are involved, political and social, the market and the value of money, but they always re-imagine themselves into something of worth and the world moves on.

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