lemme chime in here as the swiss guy...
given the UK will soon be in a similar situation as switzerland when it comes to the EU (with more "weight" so to say because of the bigger size of the country, but a worse starting position because you got out of the EU while switzerland never was in)...
Most probably the UK will have to follow the same route of endless discussions and contracts with the EU to regulate trade and immigration. Prepare for some Looooong negotiations. And a lot of posing and delaying by the EU, just to make sure you feel treated like a second rate country.
As to immigration rules... either you join the schengen act again, which would of course make the reason a lot of UK citizen voted out void, or you will be treated like gambia, or china. Or switzerland, before we joined the schengen area, for that matter.
Unless the wake up call makes sure the EU rethinks how they interact with european countries not in the EU, trying to negotiate trade and immigration rules. Switzerland might profit that way a lot from the ruckus caused by the UK. Maybe in the future, when a country like switzerland wants "special treatment" from the EU, its no longer a "my way or the highway" stance from the EU...
What I would be worried about is the unity of the UK. Given staying in the EU was the main reasons the scotts are still in the UK, I would guess they would be organizing a new vote on that... and they need to do so fast, because that way they could stay in the EU while the rest of the UK (or maybe just england by that time) leaves it, while waiting too long means they need to rejoin (takes longer, and IDK if scotland (or NI for that matter) really reaches the financial minimums set by the EU for a joining country once the dust settles on the mess UK politicians got their country into).
it is all well and good if countries want to control their borders (on the basis of sound reasons) and still access the single market but the problem is that if 1 country gets this deal that then all the countries will want the same deal.
At that point the issues becomes a lot more basic :
How do we deal with illegal immigration that will occur because each country now requires visas?
Will we see a return to sporadic cash in hand work? For example: a German restaurant along the board in the Netherlands hires a German waiter for cash - no taxes.
How do small villages along the borders fare? They would loose 50% of their customers in their radial vicinity.
Will tourism take a hit?
How do you handle countries with a low minimum wage? That would give the country an unfair advantage, its citizens can no longer leave for country X to find better work. If the labour supply cannot move (easily) then the factories will move to the labour supply.
The EU solves these problems, its not perfect but a Europe without free movement is a PITA.
If there is a better model i would like to hear it.
Also, if we ever want a world where companies can't hide their cash in tax havens then we the big trading blocs so the big deals can be made.
Hey, I am really not against the EU. I really like the idea of all the countries in europe working closer together. I really like some of perks it brings, as well as some of the responsibilities.
I do see that you have to treat everyone equaly, and that this also includes non-members (gonna be interesting how that plays out for the UK... given the EU doesn't want to haemorraghe more members, they might opt to take a rigid stance against the UK, but loosen some responsibilities for their members as well as re-negotiate some things... good for the remaining EU mambers, bad for the UK).
What I don't like so much is the arrogance that some EU officials often show when talking with non-members and members alike. Just because they are talking to single member, a local politician, or a small non-member country like switzerland doesn't mean they cannot talk to them as equals, even if they are not. Currently they often have treat such cases as a king, giving audiences to commoners would. It's bad form.
But that is just a small gripe compared to all the problems still remaining in the current form of the EU, which played into why the UK got out, and why switzerland most probably newer will get in:
1) free travel: free travel is nice and dandy if every member is about equal when it comes to wages, and cost of living. It might still offend the nationalists that company A employs to many foreigners, but at that point there is little ground to suspect foul play by company A (as the foreigneirs come from a country with similar wages, they most probably didn't accept a lower wage).
When the wages are so dissimilar like in europe at the moment, nobody wins. Eastern european countries are expieriencing a serious braindrain as well educated people will migrate west to work for a better wage. While good for SOME people (the ones finding employment for a bigger wage), their countries are suffering.
While the richer countries have to fight with higher unemployment rates because of the increased amount of people looking for jobs in their country, and social unrest caused by foreigners snatching up jobs. You could say that the economy and the shareholder wins... but the country as a whole again looses.
2) foreign law and politics being imposed upon countries: its good that the EU tries to harmonize the laws and some of the political decision between their members. This is one of the core pillars upon which the EU is founded, and one of the main benefits.
But EU officials need to be more careful with their "dictatorship"... they need to understand that what they are doing is not seen as a good thing by a lot of people in their member countries, and should really think twice if something is important enough to harmonize it and force it upon all members, or if they should leave it to their members to decide.
Its something switzerland has a lot of expierience with, it often leads to very, very bad decisions and developments (like some of our cantons collecting way lower taxes than others, leading to them becoming slums for rich people on one side, but unable to pay for the public schools on the other)... but it kept switzerland, which is still a federation of partially independent cantons, together trough a lot of turmoil and even though the different parts of switzerland have VASTLY different opinions.
3) a missing common army or at least army command: No, you cannot lean on the NATO all the time. And no, the UNO also is no replacement. I am of the opinion that the current fugitive crisis would be less severe if the EU would have swiftly acted in syria. With a united force, and every member chiming in what they could spare.
The actual crisis in syria might not have been resolved, maybe wouldn't look much different (the US might have had to invest less of their own forces).
The difference would be how the EU could have acted with the fugitives themselves. Instead of Merkel trying to guilt-talk everyone into accepting more and more fugitives on their soil, they could have set up a more strict quota, and then came up with a midterm plan for the rest, while waving the fact they were acting in syria as a clear statement they WERE doing something to resolve the conflict midterm.
Doesn't really help the fugitives in need, and might sound cold hearted. But the fugitives are also not helped if the EU breaks apart, every country looks for themselves and germany gets overrun until even Merkel has to close the borders.
Just because my country is a part of europe doesn't mean I care about a country on the other end of the europe... I should, but that is not how the average human works.
Just because some people profit a lot from free travel doesn't make the complaints by all the people that are not profitting from it less viable.
Just because the politicians in Brussel have more important things to talk about than the situation of a single member or non-member, doesn't mean its a good idea to treat everyone the same.
Not all countries in europe are the same. They come in all different shapes and sizes, some rich, some less so, some able to support themselves, some just freeloading, some even incompetent to a degree that borders on self-destructiveness.
It might be time the EU starts aknowledging that it is a federation of different countries united by common goals, not the new roman empire with the countries politicians as mere governours of the emperor in Brussel.