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Now What For The UK ?

Started by June 24, 2016 04:21 AM
104 comments, last by ApochPiQ 8 years, 3 months ago
What I'm "enjoying" is all the "now we are out of the EU..." type questions - news flash; we aren't out.

We are still in.

We will be still in until at least sometime in 2018 (aka about £36bn later) and the precise 'when' of it depends on when article 50 is invoked... although the leave camp are apparently in no hurry to do it... so aside from us being able to do anything in Europe for the next 2 years, right now nothing has changed.
(There is talk that we might not be out until 2020; so that'll be around £72billion and no influence later...)

I mean, don't get me wrong, if I wasn't a UK citizen at this point and had a high skilled job I'd be looking to get the fuck out; while it might not be all about immigration for some for a lot it was and the amount of nasty shit thrown about means I wouldn't feel welcome here any more.
(Although, 'leave' have now down played immigration controls and it depends on what market access we want we might have to keep free movement anyway... along with a shit load of laws on goods in order to trade... so those 'silly' laws are likely still to impact us.. hurray!)

So, by my count, the 'leave' side are currently backing out of three things which, if not promised, were heavily implied and a big deal for many voters...

Still, it'll be interesting to look back on this, 5 or 10 years from now, and see if either side is willing to admit they made a mistake depending on the state of the country.

My guess... probably not...
If the economy is a wreak then the leavers will continue to maintain better this than the EU.
If the economy is going well then the remainers will likely maintain that we'd be doing better in the EU.

The only thing I know for certain is this debate, which was full of flith and vitrol, has caused massive social scaring up and down the country and that is going to be the hardest thing to recover from...

Maybe more than the result the "debate" itself has probably fucked us the most...
I agree with phantom's point about this not being the common man vs the elites; that was spun by leave lobbyists (e.g., the "grassroots" campaign that was anything but), and now I see even remain people believing it.
I think it's really interesting to see how this is correlated with age though - polling put Remain at a clear majority in age groups up to 34, with a slim majority up to 44 ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028 ).
What phantom says about non-EU immigration is also true - it's got massively harder over the last 15 years or so, and even for people getting married, there're several rounds of applications (each with a ~£1000 fee) and one of you has to earn over a limit that discounts a significant proportion of the population; even before that rule, you had to show you had more than enough funds to show that you could never claim any benefits, making the new rules unnecessary other than a tool to limit the numbers.
Now, one might make the argument that it's unfair that non-EU immigration is so hard whilst EU immigration is easier - maybe it is better that it's the same for everyone, with the rules somewhere in the middle. Maybe we could go back to how the rules were say 15 years ago (funny how it's fine to go back to how things were 40 years ago, but that argument doesn't work for immigration rules). But is that going to happen when we leave the EU? Of course not. We'll continue to see complaints about immigration (most of which is non-EU anyway), and pressure for even tighter restrictions.
Having said that, I believe these income requirements don't apply if you want to become a citizen and you've already been living here for 5 years (the requirements apply insteaad to people wanting to get a visa in the first place, and for non-EU citizens, getting indefinite leave to remain), so in practice won't apply to EU citizens currently having lived here for 5 years. But I'd be surprised if anything happens to make it easier for them - they'll still have to apply to become citizens or leave at some point, and will still be subject to ever tightening rules.
Re Turkey: they could only enter the EU with the UK Government's approval - in the EU we have a say, out of it we do not. In fact the UK Government has been supportive of the idea (although even then, only when they meet the requirements), whilst in fact I believe Germany has not.
grumpyOldDude:

then Britain, France, Germany... were net contributors to EU while others where net beneficiaries

Britain, was a net recipient of migrants - many of these contribute massively positively to the economy, but there were also massive pressures on public services and also there were migrants for benefits - these disadvantages outweighs the advantages - hence for me Brexit is right, but its marginal

Though the flip side is that the savings of no trade tariffs outweighs the money paid in - unfortunately this is something less tangible and harder to predict. It's hilarious to now see places like Cornwall (that voted leave) moaning about how they'll lose EU funding and need the Government make it up.
Do the disadvantage outweight the advantages - do immigrants to the UK bring a net cost to the UK in terms of what they pay in versus what they take out?

The common market was good though

The shock of the exit has started and its going to be huge, but when it calms down then the positive benefits of being outside the EU would start to be felt

_Was_ good being a key word :) It might be nice to have a common market without the other aspects of the EU, but it's not an option, and now we're out. What are your opinions on what the UK should do in term of trade agreements? That would affect what benefits or negative consequences we have, until then it's uncertainty. If we're asking "Now what for the UK?", I don't think anyone's answered the question of what the UK should do.
MarkS:

The EU is VERY new and England has ruled itself for more than a millennia. This will not have a long term impact on the UK, although it may destroy the EU. Even then, all of the EU states have existed for centuries.

Europe has also been at war with infighting for most of those millennia. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the fall of the EU means a return to those times, but I'm not exactly reassured by a "hey, it was fine before, the EU is just a new thing".
conquestor3:

Now they don't need comply with some of the sillier EU regulations and follow laws written by people they may not have elected.

The EU consists of politicians that are directly elected, as well as those that are appointed by directly elected politicians (so analogous to the UK's 2nd House of Lords, or the US's Supreme Court). I'm not saying the system is perfect or couldn't do with reform, but this common idea of unelected EU isn't really far. Whilst there may be some silly regulations (out of the many which are really EU myths), there are also those that I like; there are also UK laws that I dislike, but I'm not calling for my city to exit the UK.
It's the directly elected UK Government (that the Leave people are so in favour of being supreme) that was majority in favour of remaining in the EU (it would be amusing to see the bill to exit the EU - since the referendum is advisory and still needs to be passed in Parliament - be defeated by the UK policitians that the Leave campaigners say should be entirely in charge).
Unduli:

I think Brexit is rather easier as UK wasn't in Schengen or Eurozone and I believe they will make a regulation like Norway if they don't want to make an example for the rest.

A "regulation like Norway" means being part of Schengen! So much for "control of our borders".

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Ya know, for some reason I thought Norway had the same system the UK had; movement was easy but you still needed a passport to cross the boarder.

The 'what now' pretty much revolves around the trade deals put in place; if we want 'free trade' (aka pay in, no tariffs) then we have to accept free movement which means no change in immigration status.

Amusingly, I was just reading statements from the leave side which basically said they are in favour of free movement and immigration so there is a good chance it won't change.... that'll make people happy :D
It is funny reading UK people rants about refuges and immigrants: last time I checked UK islands where not collocated in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea... And it is also funny see all those countries saying the same without remember they all (well mostly all, but UK is not excluded) caused such migrations with the help of US with the NATO... If there are two countries that are really paying for NATO disasters they are named Greece - firstly - and Italy (though not much as Greece).. PS: I leave in a town near a place called "Brenner pass", I know and I see how's the real situation, at least in one of the most critical area speaking about immigration.
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The idiots who voted leave are now busy googling such trivial questions as "what is the EU?". Maybe a question they should have asked 2 days ago.

Oh, and voting to leave the EU means they have to leave the EU? Who knew?

Apart from the young people who overwhelmingly voted to remain, of course.

This is a bewildering act of self harm.

You don't live in the UK


A fact for which I am profoundly grateful today.

But funnily enough, it still affects me, My (Irish) brother lives in Scotland. He and his partner now have to consider whether they can stay. I have Kiwi friends with British passports who work in European ski resorts every winter (not anymore!). I know families with one European parent and one British parent who are freaked out right now.

So yeah, I'm fucking annoyed about this. You can moderate me all you want, doesn't change the fact that no-one has presented a reason to leave that isn't based in xenophobia.

But if you really want to know how stupid it is.... look at who supports it.

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I can wish for France people: Marine Le Pen morghulis... But I understand them at least: with such morons like Jean-Claude Juncker that should stay in JAIL instead of being the been the president of the European Commission, that nazi bitch looks like a titan...

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no-one has presented a reason to leave that isn't based in xenophobia.


Uh, i have some earlier.

How about the constant squandering and wastage of cash? How about the fact that we pay in ten times more than we get back out of it?
The administrative costs of all the rules and regulations?
How about the fact that we don't have a say in a lot of this even as a member state, because just like eurovision song contest, everyone has little cliques and makes agreements behind closed doors to come to mutual agreements, which we are left out of?

How about silly things like the fishing quota which states we have no control over fishing in our own waters and if we accidentally fish over our quota we must throw the overage over the side of the boat to die?

Or all the farming quotas and rules, wasted food and resources when we actually export little in terms of farm produce to the EU?

Where do we start. Ask anyone who actually lives in the UK about how the silly regulations and laws affect them and they can give you stories all day long.

By the way, I'm considered relatively young and I voted to leave. It's not all about age, nor is it about racism for me and many others.

How about the fact that we pay in ten times more than we get back out of it?


You might want to be careful about that "fact"; yes we are a net contributor but not to that level.

Influence? Largely on us frankly, we never really engaged with the EU and in recent years we voted in representatives who took the money and if they bothered to turn up simply voted everything down further destroying our ability to operate in the EU. The line from Germany and France has always been they want us involved in a strong way, we were a good counter balance.. but we never did.

Silly things like 'fishing quota' might well have saved fish stocks... but lets not let a little thing like extinction of a species be a problem eh?

Farming quotas and rules (many of which are on livestock but lets not worry about the animals eh?) and farms are still strungling because super markets are pushing down the price of food and the farms get EU money back to help them out - they would probably be in a worse position too without controls in place.

And finally 'ask anyone...' - bullshit.
Plenty of people, day in, day out, have lived and died without the EU having any significat impact on their lives (or not in a negative way) at all - it is easy to find 'problems' when those who encounter them shout the loudest but its also key to remember those people are likely not the majority either... unless you want to agree the loudest are in which case the xenophobia groups in the leave campaign sure made a lot of noise...

On the flip side, plenty of areas of the UK have benefited from money from the EU, be they under privileged areas or just simply organistations which help people. I'm sure you've already seen the news about Cornwall, which gets a lot of money, voting to leave and then turning around and demanding its EU money be maintained when it leaves. Other areas of the UK benefit in much the same way, largely the northern areas in fact despite them voting to leave (I seem to recall a stat which said the areas which get the most amount of money from the EU voted to leave, while those with the most immigration voted to stay...)

On a more personal note a friend of mine runs a local community radio station which helps young adults/teenages with learning disabilities to help get out and do things and boost their confidence etc - that happened as a direct result of EU funding and right now he doesn't know if that'll be able to continue in the future.

So, yes, reasons to leave but plenty of reasons to stay too as we get a lot from the EU.
Still, its nice to know the nastiness hasn't spread too much, it's not like I'm seeing plenty of stories from across the UK of people telling others to get out now because they have 'won'.

Nope, a muslim welsh woman certainly wasn't told to get out now that leave have 'won'.
Someone certainly isn't walking around Romford with a "Now we've won, send them back" t-shirt on.
There is no way someone was spat on and told to 'go home' because of the colour of his skin.
The National Front aren't out in Newcastle with a banner saying "Stop Immigration. Start Repatriation"

Nope, good to see the nastiness has gone away and we are all fine once more...

When you have huge differences between GDP per capital the net migration movement is always going to be in one direction

When you have huge differences between government benefits (btw claiming child benefits for children not living the host country is scandalous and a fraud bait) the net migration movement is always going to be in one direction

when you have huge difference in employment rates between countries the net migration movement is always going to be in one direction

Little is done by the bureaucrats in Brussels in the form of economy/social benefits stress tests before they jumble countries together. I would have preferred all current EU countries to remain but in a radically reformed settings, but since these bureaucrats are not brave enough to do this, then imo Brexit was marginally the right decision

can't help being grumpy...

Just need to let some steam out, so my head doesn't explode...

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