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The Problem With Capitalism

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221 comments, last by slayemin 7 years, 8 months ago

Claim: I honestly believe that a capitalistic economic system is inevitably doomed to fail and that we're already starting to see some of the beginning stages of that inevitable failure. Somehow, we're going to eventually have to gradually move away from capitalism.

My untested hypotheses / premises:
1. The world population is growing at an exponential rate. Meanwhile, the ultimate goal of capitalism is to produce goods with as little cost as possible and sell them for as much as possible. The observable trend for capitalistic systems is to use technological advancement to increase the production efficiency of production lines while reducing the costs of production as much as possible. What used to take hundreds of people to produce decades ago may now only take dozens of people today. This trend will reach an asymptote across all industries. The bottom line is that the production of goods requires far fewer people today.

2. As a result of #1, fewer people are required to produce goods. The beneficiaries of these production pipelines are the owners of these businesses. Gradually, the socio-economic classes get stratified to such a point that a handful of people possess a majority of the worlds wealth, the middle class vanishes, and the poor get poorer. Nobody is really to blame for the boon of technological advances, but the capitalistic financial model is going to rapidly become a source of suffering for the majority of people.

3. The world is becoming increasingly globalized, such that multinational corporations can have business operations in multiple countries. Manufacturing is done in parts of the world where it is most economically efficient, where labor is cheap and ecological laws are lax. Sales are conducted online and the transaction takes place in countries with the most generous tax laws. Business interests will try to preserve and push this global advantage in as many countries as possible by spreading "free" trade. Free trade ensures that the benefits of low costs of production are not lost when goods are sold in another part of the world. This forces local workers to compete on a global scale against foreign wages they can't compete against.

4. In the next 50-100 years, most human labor will eventually be replaced with robotic labor. The mass scale production of products will eventually be done by a handful of people. A million cars could be fully produced by a staff of 20 people, from mining raw materials from the ground to the car rolling off the factory floor. The actual production cost per car could be about $5. Imagine that the production of all goods is nearly costless at this point.

5. IF all goods cost nearly nothing to produce and can be sold at the same prices, the markup values will be 50,000x. As the required workforce to produce said items dwindles down to nearly nothing, the potential customer base which can afford to purchase these items at the listed prices drops as well. So, that means we'll have a huge supply in a market which can't afford the existing prices, so the prices will have to drop to meet the price average consumers can afford to pay. What if you can buy a big screen television for $1?

6. The "work" people will do in the future will skew towards work which just isn't economically feasible or possible to replace with robotics or machines. If a coke machine can dispense soda, then a machine could also dispense cheeseburgers. If McDonalds can figure out how to automate hamburger production down to a machine, they would... provided running the machine is cheaper than paying a small staff an hourly wage barely above minimum wage. 95% of what few jobs remain will become service industry jobs (retail will mostly be replaced by online shopping). The remaining jobs will be creative pursuits, such as writing books, creating video games, music, artwork, etc. that a robot can't do. Due to this lack of demand for human labor, unemployment will skyrocket to "absurd" levels (75 percent? Maybe higher?). Basically, you'll be able to login to a computer and order a big screen television to be delivered to your house for $1.

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Okay, so normally if we took our existing capitalistic framework / worldview and applied it to this future scenario, it would seem like a dystopia with a lot of doom and gloom. But, the philosopher in me asks, "What's the real objective of life and living? Is it to work or to spend our time with more worthwhile personal pursuits?". When the costs of production have essentially been reduced to zero, why maintain a monetary system at all? What's the point? When the costs to produce something have been reduced to nearly zero, why not just make everything free? What would a society look like where anything anyone could ever want is readily available? The notion of material possessions becomes kind of meaningless. Who cares if your neighbor has a 52 inch television, when you could order one and get it at any time you wish? The concept of measuring worth by material possessions becomes antiquated. When our daily pursuits for mere survival are replaced by pursuits of leisure, I think the natural human tendency is to become creative and to share our creative works with each other (game development being one of those creative pursuits).

To take this to a scientific level for a moment, all of what I've said above is testable. We are game developers, and what is a game? Most of the time, it's a real-time simulation, and we can create a simulation of a capitalistic global society and create economic models of the past, current and future economic trends and try to predict the long term economic outcomes. Let's suppose that we can calibrate our real time simulation to accurately predict the future. To test this, we could model the world from the pre-industrial era until the year 2000 and try to predict what the world looks like in 2010 and 2015, and see if the prediction matches reality. Once the model is precisely tuned, we could start making reasonably accurate predictions of what 2050 might look like as well as 2100. Here's where things get interesting though: Since this is a grand simulation, what kinds of tweaks can we make to the simulation to change the predicted outcome? What tweaks would be the best tweaks for promoting global human well being? Would a global minimum wage change things? What about basic income? Tariffs? Or what about the abolishment of currency all together? What if 80% of people go through life having never "worked a job"? In our current worldview and value system, that's kind of hard to comprehend and respect, but that could very well become the norm in the future, and I think, a desirable norm. What if... the only work people did was work that was a passion or hobby for them? Painting... cooking... singing... "work" was just another luxury which people did at their own convenience and will, rather than a mandated repetitious daily sequence of tasks?

Whatever happens, one thing is certain: Capitalism is gradually becoming a deprecated economic system because it is a self-defeating system. We're gradually approaching an economic singularity brought on by technological progress, and in the next few decades, we as a human race are going to have to address this. I hope it's in a way which promotes global well being and prosperity rather than finding ways to preserve the increasingly stratified economic system we have currently.

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A few of your premises are immediately identifiable as wrong (although you are right insofar as some things will inevitably change in the future).

The world population is certainly not growing at an exponential rate. It is growing at its current rate because there is enough food produced (... by the capitalists). Ironically, the regions where population growth is biggest are not hte biggest producers of food (they're actually among the smallest). The people in the regions where population grows fastest only survive because they are being fed by the others. They produce more children and cry for help, and get more food. End capitalism, end this feedback cycle, and it all collapses.

Fewer people being needed to produce goods is a truth, but there are more (useless) goods than ever produced. Also, the "idea" that the people who think they can shape tomorrow have in mind is that humans shall no longer do the robot work, but will do the creative stuff. That's somewhat utopic because 90% of the population is just too useless for that, but if the automation trend continues, things will will eventually have to go in that direction.
It is however not certain that the automation trend goes on with the same speed forever. The extrapolation from "soda" via "burgers" to "everything" may not hold.

The assumption that production cost is linked proportionally to salaries is not true (it is true within some bounds, but not alltogether), as is the assumption that you will be able to buy e.g. a large TV for $1. Even now markup is huge already (and has been for decades), the cost of production is a tiny fraction of what you pay for goods. It depends, on some goods (say, milk) it's only 50%, but on some goods (books, CDs) it's easily 1,000%. When you buy the newest "GPU Pro" book or such which costs you $75, do you really think the authors get much more than $2 from that, and that it costs more than $5 to make the actual book, altogether? Note that the Kindle version which doesn't include a physical book and has no additional "production work" costs almost the same (8€ difference here).

Regardless of what happens in 50 or 100 years (that's an awfully long time to forecast!), people will still have greed, so money will be needed, and people will have to be able to earn money. People will still want to identify themselves as "something better" in comparison to everybody else, which doesn't work if everybody is equal, or if nobody owns anything (or if everybody owns the same).

Extrapolations are fine and Dandy... but they often forget the human factor.

See Trump being still a candidate. Yes, in hindsight you should have seen that coming, with the political climate change in the US and the "silent majority" and whatnot. A simple extrapolation like the "more work being done for less = Stuff is trending towards being free to produce" and "robots replacing humans somewhere = robots replacing humans everywhere" is more akin to "Trump is to stupid to finish a single sentence and manages to offend 5 minorities in one word = he will not get far"... and we have seen how well that "extrapolation" held up.

Don't get me wrong, I would love a future where robots take over. I welcome our new overlords. And I wouldn't say no to free goods. Or, to be more serious, or current rotten capitalistic system being replaced or at least being evolved into a system that is inclusive for more people.

But I think the future is becoming only harder to foretell the faster technology evolves, and the more unstable the political climate worldwide becomes.

I sincerly hope we do not, but I cannot shake the feeling we are steering into the next crisis of sorts at full steam. Best case scenario is another economical crisis (maybe this time caused by political instability even in some countries stable up to now, not by people in the financial industry messing up)...

Worst case scenario WW3? Yes its unlikely, still, with all the dictators rising up in the last few years, and even the "democratic" or at least "commite led" Superpowers like the US and China becoming more and more ego centric in their foreign politics, the chances are rising that a war somewhere might turn into something bigger.

Which again would throw all this predictions off the mark. Capitalism triumphs thanks to the resulting set back.

TL;DR.

Maybe you'd like to try that in a couple of sentences.

You sound like one of those Basic Income nut jobs.

Work for your money.

TL;DR.

Maybe you'd like to try that in a couple of sentences.

You sound like one of those Basic Income nut jobs.

Work for your money.

It never ceases to amaze me how some people seem to actually get offended by *any* insinuation that this world can get better/more fair.

I'm not talking about people that say "it would be nice, but utopic, etc"...I'm talking about people that actually seem to not *want* this, even if it would be feasible. And they get genuinely angry at anyone that suggests any change towards that goal could happen.

And it's usually people that would actually benefit from the world getting more fair.

Has anybody studied this phenom, cause it's really weird :P

TL;DR.

Maybe you'd like to try that in a couple of sentences.

You sound like one of those Basic Income nut jobs.

Work for your money.

That's not really worth posting and doesn't add anything...

As a result of #1, fewer people are required to produce goods.
This has already happened and changed things greatly. The US used to be a manufacturing nation, now they're a financial services nation. There's more people who's job is to do nothing but move around imaginary money (loans, backed by smaller loans) than there are people who actually make stuff.

Customer service, retail, call centers, tech-support, brokers, etc, etc... These are all jobs that don't really fit into the kind of thinking that's underlying the manufacturing mindset in your post.

See: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/08/labour-markets-0

The beneficiaries of these production pipelines are the owners of these businesses.
This is the key struggle of capitalism which has been completely purged from American zeitgeist. It is scarily like newspeak from 1984, where the vocabulary has decayed, precluding thought on the topic.

The core struggle of capitalism is how do you reward or balance the power/value of capital vs labour?

In a laissez-faire, unregulated economy dominated by existing power, capital will take all of the power for themselves, and work as hard as they can to suppress the power of labour, working towards creating instability in the average worker's life, to make them into a "wage slave".

If a communist economy ruled by socialist fanatics with a democratic streak, capital will be raped by labour and all power returned to the masses (until the fanatics don't want to share, at which point their authoritarian streak crushes the democratic part...)

Any healthy capitalist country is in a careful balance between the two extremes, trying to somehow define a "fair" split between rewarding labour and rewarding capital.

Note that the US is in a terrible state because in the past 50 years it's abandoned all pretence of maintaining a balance here, and like I said, the vocabulary to even discuss this struggle has been erased, meaning that it's never even discussed. You just end up with fanatics like Milton here, who flip out at the opening of a discussion, switch to some other debate that they hold preconceived ideas about, and shout down the obviously stupid other side.

samoth leaned it back to reality in an elegant manner.

Whenever I see this expressed, I envision the picture Gene Roddenberry painted of a possible future society.

The other thing I think is the saying, "In order for someone to win, someone has to loose"

Good morning read. Thanks slayemin.

Go easy on the harsh ...Milton

edit:

damn Hodgman...slap and an undercut. nicely done. :)



The other thing I think is the saying, "In order for someone to win, someone has to loose"

If you look at the world, say, 500 years ago, one would say nearly everybody is living better lives now.

It's not a zero sum game. These things don't happen overnight, of course, but nothing wrong in having a "utopia" in mind, even for the very far future, even if it's never fully realized. It keeps you fixed on a steady direction of progress.

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