After reading this, I'm even more convinced that your better games are going to be first implemented in MMOGs. Why you ask?
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Time and Budget.
How much time do you have to get it to a state of 'working' with an MMOG? About 18-24 months for a beta state, maybe a little less. Budget? After the game goes live you start having income, which means that you can devote resources that won't actually cost you anything other than profits, though many will argue that the investment in making the game better will net you more profits. 18-24 months isn't much time, but any MMOG team would hopefully continue developing the game after release, making it better, thus increasing the actual development time out indefinitely.
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processor time is devoted to AI
With an MMOG, how much CPU time do you have total in any minute? A whole lot more than a regular computer game does. You can build entire servers that have one task: AI. With this, you gain much more freedom to develop the AI to a more reasonable state. You don't have to make NPCs that will either fight to the death or do the fight/run/recover/return/fight... ad nauseum, you can make NPCs that know when they are outclassed and react accordingly. If you've taken 50% of your life in damage and done barely 10% to your opponent are you going to stick around? I wouldn't be and I wouldn't expect an NPC to either.
So let's see, more time, more resources, time to do things right after the game has gone gold, time to add those features that couldn't be implemented under the original release restraints, more CPU time to handle complex AI, larger databases to handle NPC AI rules, etc...
There isn't a single detriment to making an MMOG as opposed to a normal computer game, except for the initial investment, but if you look at the post-mortem for DAoC on gamasutra, you'll see that you don't need to spend $8Million to make an MMOG, you can do it with $2-$3 Million... if they were honest about their costs. I'm guessing that the cost of the servers was not included in that though, I could be wrong though. You could probably run a couple of zones on one dual processor blade server with a Gig or two of RAM, so you're talking about a server that will probably cost around $3-5k. Figure with today's servers being much more powerful than the ones that EQ started with and you can make some pretty darn big zones and still not see a serious performance hit in any zone until a lot of people get in it. So figure around 80 zones, 2 serious servers for handling the character database (mirrored dbs for better uptime) for each shard, a couple of serious servers for the more complex AI which would only be needed for certain situations and you're probably looking at around $300,000 in server costs (40x$5000, plus another $100,000 for 4 quad servers), if you use a Linux distro and MySQL as your server. If you change over to Oracle and any other OS, you've probably just tripled your costs.
So figure you spend $3.5Million on game development and the first couple of shards that will support around 4xserver load (hopefully around 3000 or so online, supporting 12000 users total) users, if you want to support 100,000 users you'll have to add another 6 shards, or $1.8Million. It's probably possible to do this with fewer shards and supporting more users per shard or with fewer initial zones. If you support 100,000 accts, or 25,000 online at any time, you can figure that your bandwidth costs will be 2kbps(25000 online users), or around a single T3(OC3 IIRC, or 54Mbps) per month. Toss in everything else (employees, location costs)and with 100,000 users you should be able to bring back $500,000 per month in return, or recoup your initial investment of around $5.5Million, including servers in one year and that's not even including the fact that these games are sold for $40 each (not that the publisher or the development company gets that per copy).
Sorry I got a bit heavily into the economics of MMOGs a bit in-depth there, just providing supporting evidence. Obviously though, as you can see, with a userbase of 100,000 any MMOG becomes successful very quickly. Considering the fact that you're probably putting around $200,000 into your programmers per month (maybe a dozen programmers), you should have little problem further developing the game and getting more people into the game regularly, which means that you will have more resources coming in every month and you can invest more into fixing all the stuff that was 'half-assed' in the initial release of the game and implementing those features that you wanted but couldn't put the time into before release.
[edited by - solinear on March 14, 2002 12:42:01 PM]