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Space Colonization and the Future

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61 comments, last by polyfrag 6 years, 12 months ago

On the ethics topic, what do you do if the next generation revolts and wants to change course? Is it their right to turn around and accelerate back towards earth instead of finishing the journey? (assuming there's enough fuel to do so)

What kind of government should rule over them? Typically on a dangerous vessel, the right to choosing government is suspended and a singular captain is chosen to be responsible for everyone's fate. Should the crew have a democratic right to choose their own captain? And should the captain have the ability to change the course?

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Future generations would obviously be free to change their society as they see fit, regardless of where that generation is. It would be a society like any other, with a ruler and structure as any society on earth has now. But changes to how that society works at any given time would of course be tempered by law and tradition and such as it is now. I don't get to decide that I can simply do as I please on a whim with zero regard to others (otherwise I would likely have had WAY more fun with s tank or tank like machines in my life...) so an individual doesn't get to decide to 'take their ball and go home' all on their own and randomly choose to depart or take resources for 'unlawful uses'. Law and punishment would still be a thing, and social norms would drive social pressures.

Any such society that is living on a generational ship would be very steeped in education and general indoctrination, with a large portion of the population at any given time having been 'raised with the old guard' and grow up around the majority of people who want the mission to succeed, because everyone else around them wanted the mission to succeed, and it becomes very difficult for a viewpoint of "We should change the plan" to take hold. - Why would you change the plan in the middle of the trip? A- You know it would be very difficult to change anyway B- if you're 100+ years out from a planet in either direction then you're not going to benefit either way. (New research and such of course may change things. It is entirely possible that a generational ship head out based on the best of scientific knowledge, and then plans end up changing with new developments are made. The first generational ships to leave the system could be intercepted with new FTL cruisers sent out to pick everyone up for all we know.)

Anyone who was on the ship when it leaves Earth's system is going to be very enthusiastic about the project. If they were exceedingly enthusiastic about the idea, then why on earth would they be considering joining/staying with the project as it readied and took off? You're going to leave with a spread of of ages in the population of 2-3 generations to begin with. All of them are going to be focused on the mission and the goal.

The first generation born while already underway will grow up knowing nothing beyond the mission, and surrounded by those who support the mission. They'll have their kids after a few decades, and the second underway generation will be born into a world surrounded by those who have lived for decades in support of the mission. By the time the third underway generation is being born then we can expect the oldest generations to be withering away, but society would still be 5/6+ people who have lived in a society focused on the mission. That makes for some impressive social backing that we would normally call nationalism, and it would be rather hard for anyone to make a dent in it.

Barring some horrible accident or event that wipes out massive parts of the population you don't get any sudden change. You don't get any point where the young and rebellious and "open to new ideas" kind of people are the overwhelming majority of the society. Sure, you get the moody "Why me!? Why are we doing this!? I have a better idea!!" kind of attitudes in the population, but we get those here on earth as it is. And sadly we've yet to develop that youthful logical communist utopia even after more than a century of trying.

A suitable generational ship that is large enough to contain and develop a decent sized society becomes a planet in and of itself effectively. I don't worry too much about the idea of my kids most likely living a life where they probably will never leave the planet. If I had the chance to be part of a generational ship, then why would I worry that my kids probably can't leave that either? I'm not stepping on such a ship if I'm not extremely confident that it will provide a life that is as good or better than myself and my family would have if I stayed behind.

Old Username: Talroth
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I have not read any posts other than the original.

This topic fascinates me and the idea of colonizing space isn't so much colonizing another planet outside our solar system, but rather the possibility of creating self-sustaining arks that can traverse the cosmos for thousands of years on end. Why does our future depend on planets? why couldn't we divorce ourselves from the embryo's of life, grow up and live among the stars.

Any such society that is living on a generational ship would be very steeped in education and general indoctrination, with a large portion of the population at any given time having been 'raised with the old guard' and grow up around the majority of people who want the mission to succeed, because everyone else around them wanted the mission to succeed, and it becomes very difficult for a viewpoint of "We should change the plan" to take hold

I'd actually argue that the salient problem is the opposite: if it takes a significant number of generations to reach another star system, then how do we ensure that the population of the ship still have the knowledge and skills required to colonise a planet?

Large-scale farming, civil engineering (constructing bridges and roads), mining, smelting and smithing... These are all fields which are essential to a new colony, but have no real use on board a typical generation ship.

Tristam MacDonald. Ex-BigTech Software Engineer. Future farmer. [https://trist.am]

I'd actually argue that the salient problem is the opposite: if it takes a significant number of generations to reach another star system, then how do we ensure that the population of the ship still have the knowledge and skills required to colonise a planet?

Well to survive a trip that long the ship will need to be a small planet.

Say 100-200 people, enough earth to crow crops, water and energy. Mimic the food recycle system on earth and you will have people who could colonise a planet because they have been colonising a ship.

One of the largest things that would have to be tested is if it's even is possible to cut a piece of earth away and to form a micro eco system.

I expect a kind of isolation training would be done first: Building the ship and then while it's still on earth let the colony of people live in it cut from the normal world. This will both prepare them for space and allow adjustments to the ecosystem in the ship to get it fully working; they would live like this for a year or two to see if the crop cycles are working and if the amount of waste is enough to recycle properly.

Then when the ship is it's own fully enclosed system, just launch the whole thing into space.

Say 100-200 people, enough earth to crow crops, water and energy. Mimic the food recycle system on earth and you will have people who could colonise a planet because they have been colonising a ship.

My wife is an author who studied out generational ships for a series of fiction books. We've discussed it quite a few times. While a very small crew of perhaps 80-100 people could run the ship during transit, they would be insufficient to establish a colony. A better number is around 10,000 to 20,000 people, but only after habitable planets are discovered and colonization plans are developed.

There are many major barriers for humans to travel between stars, among the two biggest are keeping people alive during transit and colonizing the planet on arrival.

Cryogenics is popular both in fiction and real-world research because of the first barrier. The trip will take a long time and space is cold. I mentioned it on the last page of the discussion thread, but it bears repeating. If people can be frozen for the trip there is no energy needed; deep space is very near absolute zero, generally only single-digit kelvin temperatures. However, if people need to be up and awake and doing living things their living areas need to be heated. Keeping it heated means constantly spending precious energy to compensate for all the heat being leaked out to space. Keeping people active during the trip means solutions to all the problems of food and water and recycling, all of which require energy. For stupid reasons I always imagine this as people having a little pop-up turkey thermometer as part of the cryogenics process, they're ready when the button pops out. :-) Whatever way you do it, you need to make sure the crew have all the skills they need to establish the colony when they arrive.

Once they get there they need to set up the colony, the second barrier. While a few hundred people could potentially handle the baby-making aspects, the bigger problem is lost skills and lost knowledge. There are many roles that will need to be passed along. If you've got a hundred person generational ship the only skills that will survive are the ability to maintain the ship (hopefully) and the ability to raise children. The population base is not large enough to retain a working knowledge of other skills. Some of them could be kept in books but without real working knowledge there wouldn't be a way to preserve it. The small crew would arrive after many generations, pull out books in a language they were taught to preserve, and find instructions about assembling habitations, analyzing their new home's features, engaging in physics, chemistry, biology, architecture, construction, sanitation, and on and on. You also need culture; artists, musicians, sculptors, and so on. When the ship arrives they need several thousand people with experience in several hundred fields who can immediately get to work.

There many other issues than those two, but generational ships are generally considered impractical if the goal is establishing a settlement. They might make sense for other purposes, such as a genetic ark or for certain types of research, but the costs of keeping people up and running for several generations are enormous.

On the ethics topic, what do you do if the next generation revolts and wants to change course? Is it their right to turn around and accelerate back towards earth instead of finishing the journey? (assuming there's enough fuel to do so) What kind of government should rule over them? Typically on a dangerous vessel, the right to choosing government is suspended and a singular captain is chosen to be responsible for everyone's fate. Should the crew have a democratic right to choose their own captain? And should the captain have the ability to change the course?

These are all among the reasons against generational ships, and they all strongly favor cryogenic solutions. The frozen crew is the original group who willingly made their decision. Presumably they will have been like-minded enough to establish rules for colonization, including governance at their new home.

Since the crew effectively has no time pass when they are frozen, they keep all the other benefits above for establishing the colony.

A short-term ship where only a single generation is needed --- the original launch generation raises children who will settle the colony --- has the least problems with those issues. If the trip can be made in 50 years or so it can work out. Every new generation adds more complexity to the issue.

It would make more sense to send 10 - 20k frozen embryos that can be grown in a lab. Then the crew only needs to be large enough to set things up. Probably send 100-200 embryos sets to be grown over the course of the journey to replace the crew.

Pregnancies and traditional family planning would be chaos. Relationship squabbles would be endless.

I think people would learn a lot faster when they are faced with the daunting realities of space and they are not screwed up by badly formed politically motivated educational policies.

There's a ton of problems with generation ships, but only if we consider them 'ships'. Say, for example, if we consider them instead to be political entities instead of ships. Instead you'd have floating nation states that just move around space on an infinite road trip of sorts. They don't necessarily need a destination in mind, or can change their destination as time goes on, cause inevitably they'd learn things or things would happen that may cause them to change their minds.

Just a thought tho.

It would make more sense to send 10 - 20k frozen embryos that can be grown in a lab. Then the crew only needs to be large enough to set things up. Probably send 100-200 embryos sets to be grown over the course of the journey to replace the crew.

Pregnancies and traditional family planning would be chaos. Relationship squabbles would be endless.

I think people would learn a lot faster when they are faced with the daunting realities of space and they are not screwed up by badly formed politically motivated educational policies.

Yea it could work, but the thing is that I'd only see people resorting to this solution if the Earth was about to fall apart or something (like Interstellar). You really just cannot convince people otherwise, unless we are talking about eccentric billionaires.

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!

It would make more sense to send 10 - 20k frozen embryos that can be grown in a lab.

I think you missed the reasons.

The point is not to have the bodies. A proper mix of genders can produce babies easily enough.

The reason for all the people is the knowledge and experience they bring. You have people who can pick up equipment and immediately be functional. You arrive at the planet and have geologists and biologists and miners and architects and environmentalists who can start to work, coordinators and planners who can manage the projects. People limited to physical sciences tend to overlook other needs, so you need artists and psychologists and people who study aesthetics to provide alternatives to large gray boxes the scientists tend to create. You'll also need entertainment for the people, food beyond "nutritional supplement 24", and so much more.

Even if you bring a bunch of books, there is still much that needs to be learned through experience and there is currently no substitute for it.

There's a ton of problems with generation ships, but only if we consider them 'ships'. Say, for example, if we consider them instead to be political entities instead of ships.

Yes, but then you've replaced the equations and the goals.

Your goal is no longer colonization of worlds, but instead creation of habitation pods. Pods can have their own purposes that are completely unrelated to colonization. You may have pods for mining asteroids, pods for processing ore, pods for research, and so on.

In order to colonize a planet you'll need a large number of pods and quickly be back to the original goal with the original problems.

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