Not sure if you've been following this story. I'm just glad I don't live in Germany right now. Some are saying this will be good for Germany's economy. I don't see how dumping a country on top of another and driving the labour market to third world standards will 'help' Germany's economy.

How do you think events will unfold?

Just to put things in perspective before the fearmongers step in; after this massive influx, Syrian refugees make up 0.13% of the German population (13 in ten thousand). Assuming Syria wins the war, many will return home afterwards.

Pretty much what Hodgman said. I live near the border in Salzburg, Austria where most refugees pass through to germany. And while there are many of them, especially since germany introduced border control and most people have to wait, the situation is nowhere near "escalation" as some people would put it. I've been to the trainstation in salzburg for a few times from now, which is a transit-point for most refugees that go to germany. There are some tents in fron of the trainstation and lots of police. Time after time you see bunch of people who look like they are refugees, but the situation generally rather feels relaxed, it seems the system is working as intended.

How it will unfold? Hard to say. 95% of syrian refugees are actually in border-countries and/or in syria itself (I belive 1,2 mio people are actually fleeing inside their own country). Certainly, germany cannot possibly hold all those people, so it would be important to fix the situation down there - not even talking about the war itself, but stabilizing the situation in the refugee-camps down there would already prevent many people from fleeing.

The current numbers, if distributed somewhat fairly (there is some major lack in the government policies though) are nowhere near critical though - for example, austria took 150k hungarian refugees in 1956 and already has 500k muslims by now, with a population of 8 mio. Germany has 80 Mio citizens - even if they where to take 800k refugees, this would by 1% of the population. If austria could handle 2,2% of its population in a post-war era, germany can handle the 0.13% that are currently there. There certainly is a limit of capacities, especially if they fail at distributing the people. But there is some time to come up with a solution till that is reached.

Just to put things in perspective before the fearmongers step in; after this massive influx, Syrian refugees make up 0.13% of the German population (13 in ten thousand). Assuming Syria wins the war, many will return home afterwards.

I'm really curious, how do you know "many" will return home? I can only speak for Europe but this isn't how it turned out after the balkan wars ended, to pick one example.

I'm really curious, how do you know "many" will return home? I can only speak for Europe but this isn't how it turned out after the balkan wars ended, to pick one example.

According to the UNHCR, to take austria again, since 1945 there was about 2 mio refugees, 700k stayed. Thats a 65% return rate. I don't know whether germany has largely different numbers. Its on you to decide whether thats "too many" that stay, but we can probably agree that about 2/3 returning can be considered "many".

Source (in german unfortunately):

http://www.unhcr.at/unhcr/in-oesterreich/fluechtlingsland-oesterreich.html

They should all be tested for any kind of diseases.- Apparently many think to find work easily.

Merkel should have handled this differently. Instead of selfishly saying welcome cheap workers, she should have tried to find a solution with all EU countries. Now the EU seems to have agreed on military action against tug gangs. Honestly I don't think they will catch more then ~10% with the only result for the tug gangs to raise their price. And the poor will pay as they say "we shipped thousands to EU and they have a good live there."

Desperate on the long run spending millions for such while having thousands refugees every day... And how many will ever return to their fully bombed houses?

austria took 150k hungarian refugees in 1956

There's a pretty big difference between absorbing and integrating refugees from a neighboring country, which shares an enormous commonality of language, culture, and religion, where the two countries were one not too much earlier, and the current refuge situation.

When I studied in Berlin in 2009, there were some pretty strong racist sentiments that I encountered from various people - at the time mostly directed towards the Turkish minority. People were not really bashful about it, either.

Just to put things in perspective before the fearmongers step in; after this massive influx, Syrian refugees make up 0.13% of the German population (13 in ten thousand). Assuming Syria wins the war, many will return home afterwards.

That number is wrong (but also irrelevant since Syrians != migrants != problem).

nowhere near "escalation" as some people would put it

Fearmongers and "some people", that would be me, I guess... since I've already written a bit about that on here.

To put things into a more realistic perspective: Syrians are not the problem. Or at least, they are not the biggest problem.

Apart from some actual fugitives, we are being overrun by so-called fugitives in hundred thousands. A lot come from Albania and various states in central Africa where there is no war, and Pakistan. They (not all, but enough of them) are ready for violence at the slightest occasion. This, and the sheer number, is the biggest problem (and of course, the reaction that it will provoke).

The moment you pick up a cudgel and attack other people, you can no longer call yourself a victim. Also, after you made knives and cudgels out of your bed (for weapons) you can no longer pretend that things just went over board by accident. Making weapons shows intention, it doesn't happen accidentially.

Also, they (and unluckily, not few Syrians, too) are well-prepared to exploit the system in every possible way. For example, knowing that when you are under age you have special privilegues and get a permit to stay "kind of automatically", suddenly almost all who are under 25 are suddenly 17 years old. Of course they lost their papers, so you have to take their word on it. Some countries do mediacal examinations to verify the claims (or so the media say) but in Germany this is considered too humiliating.

Similar thing happened a few weeks ago when some psycho hobbyist suggested that a lot of women and children were probably traumatized during their journey and needed special care. Now all of a sudden, many thousand have been abused by the Turks. There were interviews with a few of these traumatized people on TV. Oh the bad Turks, this was like hell, mothers thought about killing their children and committing suicide. Because, oh the Turks, they are like animals.

I don't doubt that some migrants are indeed 17 years old and sure enough one or the other will have had traumatizing events. But when it's suddenly everybody because they heard that they get some special treatment, it's not credible. And I don't want to believe the massively scary stories about the Turks, they are former Ottomans just like the Syrians. So basically they're something like brothers. Sure thing, you cannot pick up cudgels and start hitting people in Turkey, since police will start shooting.

The abusing-the-system is not a new phenomenon, it was the same when the fugitives (and "fugitives" who came after the war was over) came from Tunisia back then. And it wasn't much different before that.

Lawsuits have brought the administrative courts to their limit, practically to the extent of DoS (as stated on Wirtschaftswoche Aug 15 and Spiegel Aug 16).

how many are there, and how many will go back?

Government (Gabriel, to be precise) had admitted that "up to 400k" might arrive until the end of the year it was on news every day from 5,000 to 10,000 had been arriving every day for over a month. So you could do the math and see that those "up to 400k" had already arrived within a month.

Shortly after, Gabriel admitted that these 400k might be over 800k, and meanwhile Merkel avoids giving an answer at all (in a recent interview, she stated that nobody could give a precise number). Semi-official sources and the governmentally-owned media (like ARD) speak of "probably more like 1 to 1.5 million". They stated that over 200k applications had already been granted (this number is about a week old already) and it is expected that each of these will "pull" another 4 to 8 family members after them. So much for "only 0.13%".

Who will stay and who will leave?

I can't find that telltale photo with the migrant on a beach (in Italy, I believe... but could have been Greece) with a banner saying "We are not going back" now.

It has been published by the media (a month ago?) that even among the ones to be denied, only 15% actually leave. Again, the system is exploited to the last bit by presenting fake (or actual) medical attestations, and by filing complaints and lawsuits against the decisions. Meanwhile, government has promised to work on streamlining the process and making changes to the applicable law (or so they said, presumably something has been decided, too) but I am oblivious of what has indeed changed.

It's a fair guess that the vast majority of migrants plans to stay. That's what has always happened in the past.

What are the implications?

Violence of course... and Nazis. Or, if you want to word it more politically correct than "Nazis", a sharp right turn will come.

And this is a problem that is just as big as the fugitives.

A lot of people (me included) are getting more and more fed up because things are going wrong. For example, I don't understand why, in addition to free shelter, clothes and food, giving 380€ to someone from Albania is necessary or even a good idea. I told you at another occasion that this is more than what my mother is getting for retirement. Is there a human right for getting free money? I think not.

Why is this a problem? First of all, we cannot really afford it, but more importantly it's unfair. Government is breaking one promise after another towards the people (especially when it comes to retirement pays) but at the same time gives billions of cash to foreigners, real fugitives or not. Even people who are certain to be not-fugitives. Seasonal workers have come here from Poland for decades. Do you think they earn more than 380€ for working 10 hours per day?

Giving out cash like this means rewarding illegal non-fugitive migration. It is an open invitation to everybody on the Balkan to come here. What's the worst thing to happen? You wait for being expelled for 2-3 years, and meanwhile you get a lot of cash every month. Can it be much better?

Schäuble advertized his "black zero" plan a month or two ago. Basically, this plan is about no more accumulating debt. In a recent interview, he was asked how "trying for zero additional debt" was supposed to make anything better. He answered with an evil grin and said "You really don't know how this works, do you. Inflation will take care of that". At the same time, governmental propaganda says that we have close to zero inflation, and we have been getting zero interest on money for years, which was referred to as "cold expropriation". You can see from what you pay for a cart full of food in your supermarket that "no inflation" is a lie.

Meanwhile, it was admitted that the "black zero" plan will not work because they didn't budget for the 50 billion that they spent on fugitives.

Of course this doesn't matter to anyone who lives from wellfare. Got no money, don't care about interest. Not as long as welfare keeps paying you. The problem is that the entire middle-class who does own something are feeling it, and eventually wellfare will no longer be able to keep up. Talk about expropriation of apartments doesn't help either. Government cheated people on retirement pays, so they started saving money. Then they got cheated on interest and bought apartments. Now it's being talked about taking that away, too.

To be fair, it's mostly just talk , it has so far only happened to hotel owners, but that's bad enough. Also two tenants (two in Germany that I know about) have had their contracts forcefully cancelled to make room for fugitives. That is not the same thing as expropriation, and two is a very small number... but still it's a very wrong thing to do because it is an immensely negative signal which has very negative consequences. There are things that you just cannot do and expect nothing will happen.

The right turn "may" not come, it is already happening. While a month or two ago, media -- governmental owned and private alike -- were full of "pro fugitive" propaganda, things are very different now. I am not only referring to news on ARD or to news in general which are a lot more critical and show footage that was kept under the rug previously, but also to "pulp TV". Two months ago, the daily soap that my mother is watching was suggesting that women marry non-fugitive illegal migrants who are denied residence to avoid them being expelled, because that is sooooooo unfair. Now, the tone in the same series is an entirely different one. Yes, it's a TV series, but I think it is a good indicator of the "general feel" nevertheless (or in fact, not "nevertheless", but "especially").

I have seen this myself on several occasions. For example, on the train back from Munich two weeks ago, a lady whom I would consider "typical middle-class, in the 40s" went to get a coffee from the dining car. She asked the woman in the seat next to her to pay attention [verbatim quote] so no dirty fugitive would take her place while she was away. The other one replied that she had had that the other day, and they just won't go away when you tell them that you've reserved that seat.

I couldn't resist any make the semi-cynical comment "You do know that these people have rights, don't you." Guess what kind of quite unfriendly answer I got from both of them. You wouldn't have heard a "typical middleclass lady" say such a thing a month earlier. The tide is turning, and it is uncertain what will happen (but it's unlikely that it will be something good). So far, most people are still being politically correct in public, and they are too "tamed" to do something. But I am sure this will change, it is only a matter of time.

Nazis are gaining support, and they will continue gaining support. So far, a few shelters have burned when nobody was inside. Give it another 6-10 months and people will die.

In France, some people already think that Le Pen may indeed have a reasonable chance for 2017. Valls openly admited months ago that he feared the FN. He had every reason to fear them, too, since they already had a quarter of voters behind them at that time. Nobody knows how many they have now (but surely not fewer). There is no reason to assume that the development is, and will be, any different in Germany. May God protect us if we get Nazis into government in both countries (although sadly, they will probably not do much worse than the present ones do...)

I have no illusions that our Nazis are any better than the ones who pretend being fugitives and then make knives and cudgels out of beds in a shelter and go attacking other people. Indeed, they have in common (but not just the organized ultra-rights, the organized ultra-left are the same!) not just the violence, but also that they live from the wellfare state, taking and not giving back anything (not anything but hate and violence).

The important difference is, however, they are born in this country. Whether we're happy with them or not, we cannot choose whether we want them. They're here and there is no place we could send them back to. All we could do is avoid pouring oil into their fires (which is the opposite of what the government is doing!).

On the other hand side, we could choose whether we want someone who came here without visum and demonstrated that he is a violent criminal. Again, I'm not against someone who is a real fugitive, or against any other foreigner who wants to live here in accordance with the law and with society.

I remember two girls from Iran who were in school with me. Their parents had fled from Khomeinei when the girls were 2 or 3 years old, father was a structual engineer. Girls spoke perfect German and were diligent in school, they were "as much German" as I am (and presumably still are). I never heard that they were seen carrying cudgels and hitting people. Welcome. Please send more like these. I remember another one from Sri Lanka and two from Korea who came here as "boat people", having lost their parents on the trip. Same story. Friendly, diligent people. Welcome, please send more.

But someone who comes from a place where there is no war and no need can get a visum, or can stay away. It's not like getting a visum is hard unless you are a criminal. That's how it works in every other country in the world, too.

And someone who picks up weapons and attacks people is not a victim. I don't understand why the government is so scared about expelling these individuals on the spot. Violence not welcome. Not honoring human rights not welcome.

Just to put things in perspective before the fearmongers step in; after this massive influx, Syrian refugees make up 0.13% of the German population (13 in ten thousand).

Good point. But also remember that Germany is not as large as the US or even Australia.

Assuming Syria wins the war, many will return home afterwards.

Yeah... Good luck with that.

Germany will be fine, I'm a bit more concened for my country that has a population of a "half city" and we allready have other 'majorities' with claims and demands...