Games like free to play MMORPGs, multiplayer browser-based games etc.
Let's say our game has 1 million players and an item shop/premium user packs.
How many of those players are going to constantly buy premium items or packs?

It depends on.....
how popular the game is
how well designed
is it easy for people to use the shop feature
is it well marketed....
and a host of other factors.

In addition to the above most sales/customer data is confidential and companies don't release it so it may be hard to find anything other than guesses.

I just want the guess of an expriened person (like you).
I hope I'll make it easier for you if I give you some details:

-a brower-based game similar to http://www.epicduel.com/ (turn based combat between players who can level-up their characters and buy new items and abilities).

-pretty popular, having 1 million members worldwide

-unique items and premium packs (giving the player higher exp rate and unlocked possibilities) can be purcheased from the item shop

-well organized item shop, having a variety of ways of paying

I hope that's enough for getting an approximate answer. :D

With all of the companies keeping their info confidential, you might be interested in this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

80% of your profit will come from 20% of your clients.

However, when it comes to games, I've read that the top 10% players generate 90% of the profit.

If your game is popular and there is a strong community, you can expect a decent number of players to buy their way to the top. Some enjoy bragging rights, some are conspicuous consumers, others are collectors.

This all doesn't matter if your players dont believe in the game.

http://www.mmogchart.com/

-cb

Quote: Original post by Hardcharger
However, when it comes to games, I've read that the top 10% players generate 90% of the profit.

Yeah. I think this is what I've heard as well for Dungeons & Dragons online, PSN Home and Farmville. IIRC, it was around 5-10% of the player base that generated around 90+% of the revenue through the store.

I believe that some of the articles I read a while back were from gamasutra.com

-me

Good question. I believe the rule of thumb for F2P games is around 5% of the user base will pay something for virtual items. The question is how much can you convince that core group to spend in-game? If they only spend $1/month then the game might not be profitable, but if they spend $10/month that small group can pay the cost of running your game for free. The real question is how do you convince them to spend cash on your game?

The 5-10% seems like the "rule" when it comes to most social games. Zynga games hover in the 5% area, according to one Zynga executive.

Bigpoint's CEO was quoted as saying there's a big disparity between European and US audiences, in that only a few Europeans spent money but spent huge amounts, while US players were spending a lot less per capita but you can expect a bigger percentage of users to purchase premium (subs or items).

Finally, you must also consider that the rest (90-95%) can be monetized through other means. There are programs like offerpal, changed name to Tapjoy (tapjoy.com) that will allow you to do that.

One million US/EU users is a very solid base for a social game. One million Russians... not so much. Though game like Total Influence cater to that market effectively.

I've also heard that the number of players which end up supporting the game as a whole is around 10%. These are people that spend actual money on subscriptions or regular microtransactions. You make a trickle of money from the other 90% through advertising, incentive offers (Try Netflix and get 100 gold, Netflix pays the studio hard cash for the referral), and the odd micro-transaction, but that 10% is the bread and butter.

Of course, that doesn't mean that a game with 1 million players is *entitled* to 100k paying customers. Social games and "freemium" MMOs are carefully designed to encourage people to get people to pay for *something*, and once they do that its easier to keep them buying. Most games of this type are centered around a theme, if unconsciously, of "keeping up with the jones'" -- Farmville, for example. These companies literally employ psychologists and behavior experts to craft an addictive and competitive experience.