1. What do you think are his chances against Hillary, which seems to be not very popular even with democrats voters? Given how everyone thought he would never make it to become the republican candidate, might he once again suprise everyone?
Simpsons already did it! To quote Kang in Treehouse of Horror VII, ironically after eliminating Clinton:
Ha ha ha, what are you going to do. You have to elect one of us [Kang or Kodos]. Or you can throw your vote away.
So, seeing how people have to elect someone, I think they might as well elect Trump. He is, despite all, the "more american" candidate.
What are the consequenses? Might he be able to make the US loose their last arabic ally, the Sauds? Is he able to mend the relationship with israel which have worsened under Obama? Or will he make everything worse again?
One has to be realistic about that. The Saudis are not allies, they are enemies. The Saudis know that and already live by it, and to the USA, anyone not-USA is at best a not-immediate enemy anyway, so there are no big surprises ahead. Trump may be more vocal about it, but it's not like that makes a big difference, the Saudis are not stupid.
It may not turn out being such a great time living in the USA if you're Mexican (or any latino) or black, although I believe that the effect will overall be relatively moderate.
First, it's not like the police doesn't
already shoot blacks for dubious or non-existent reasons and bludgeons them to death
under a democratic administration. So, how much worse can it get, really. Second, and more importantly, the USA urgently need these people. The average fat, lazy American doesn't want to do the work that the starving Mexican will happily do for very little money. Someone has to do the work, though. All propaganda left aside, Trump certainly knows that. You cannot run a country without people who do the work.
TTIP discussions
Most likely. That may however be a good thing (for us, not for the USA). He might overdo it so much that, although the hope is very, very, very small, it's just enough so the last corrupt EU commisioner says -- under massive public pressure -- that and TTIP is off the table for the time being. Which would be the best thing to happen in years. But unluckily, that's probably just a dream.
And who will pay for these sometimes outlandish ideas? Will the cost of these projects cost him the second term?
The American people will pay, obviously. You don't really think Mexico will pay that wall, do you. That's assuming the wall is built at all (though it is already present in the second Machete movie, prophetic...). Will it cost him the second term? Well, let's see. How many politicans who served a second term have kept their promises? Can you name one?
current racial unrest thanks to shootings of blacks by the police, and police officers now getting attacked?
This is a hard to solve issue, and Trump is certainly not going to solve it (but neither will Hillary). There are two very different sides to that same thing. There's the racist thing, and there's the other side.
Police shooting people, and police being attacked is a serious problem. I'm all for police shooting people, and I'm certainly for shooting blacks in the same manner as whites. Not because of their skin color, but because they are criminals who are a threat to innocent people. Being black can as little serve as a reason
not to be shot (in fear of instrumentalization) as it can be a reason to be shot.
We had such an upsetting event only two days ago in Germany. An selfmade-IS Afghan severely severely injured people (still uncertain if some will die) in a train with knives and an axe, then got off the train and injured another woman in the nearby town. Police shot him.
Now, in a country where things are right, everybody would say: "Well done, officer. You have prevented other innocent people from being hurt or killed, here is your medal". However, in an ultra-left country like Germany, what an elected representative from the Green Party has to say to that is: "But couldn't you shoot more carefully, so to stop but not kill him", and some totally fucked up social worker has her big five minutes on evening TV: "Oh the poor boy, he was only 17, and he was such a nice person".
Well yeah, the fucker is dead now, shot by the police, and he was only 17. How very sad. But he was also a cynical liar, and someone who just knifed and axed half a dozen people, and he was a present and immediate threat to others, let's just not forget these tiny details. Police
didn't shoot an innocent poor underage fugitive. They shot a dangerous criminal who demonstrably lied about fleeing from violence and who made a cynical video about his planned murder spree the day before, and who slaughtered innocent people whom he didn't even know. If you're the one swinging the axe, you definitively aren't a victim. If you are old enough to slaughter people, you are old enough for being shot by the police, too.
Besides, it's not like shooting someone is a lot of fun to the police man who has to do it, no matter whom he is shooting. It's most certainly not a rewarding job to shoot at a human (for someone with a normal psyche, anyway), no matter what kind of a rotten person you're shooting at. But it is definitively "right" given the good circumstances, and it deserves praise, not shame.
On the other hand of course, there are plenty of occasions (much more frequent in the USA) where one might argue that police didn't have all that great motives about bludgeoning or shooting someone, and that it was more related to skin color than to anyhting else. But there's probably also cases where a shooting was well justified, and still all that remains is "Boo! Police shoots blacks". It's hard to tell, sometimes you cannot know for sure.
This whole thing is alltogether extremely convoluted, and something that will always lead to controversy. Getting it
right is near impossible. No doubt Trump will be unable to do that, no surprises ahead.
So really, I am asking myself if we need another politician that might turn out to be a wolf in a sheeps clothing.
Well, I consider the new Adolf Hitler in the east who just successfully orchestrated a Reichstag-fire last week the much more serious threat than a crazy American business man with crackpot ideas. Am I the only person in the world worrying that history is repeating itself
exactly, to the letter?