I still personally feel that VR is massively over-hyped and has about as much of a future as 3D TVs (read: huge development push from manufacturers but next to zero uptake by the actual consumers) or the Kinect (read: sold as the next great thing from Microsoft, but only really used for dance games) or the Wii remote (read: innovative change to control schemes that only really worked well in Wii Sports). AR at least has a commercially-viable future... in industrial, medical, and engineering sectors, not your average consumer household. $3k is damn cheap for bleeding-edge industrial technology.
Seconded.
I don't think VR is nearly as big as the gadget crazy minority is making it look like, and the industry is happily playing along. I am pretty sure when the first gadget journalists had their first taste of a GOOD 3D TV, they were all over it (too bad it took the TV industry years to make 3D halfway enjoyable, and they couldn't wait with releasing 3D TV Sets until then)... fast forward 2 years, and they only saw the flaws, the higher price, and the novelty factor was gone.
I predict the same to happen to VR. The first gen VR sets being released soon have solved the most pressing issue (nausea), but there are like a thousand additional immersion blocks (static lenses without eye tracking, cables, heavy VR Goggles, limited or no ability to move around, still pixely displays). Without them removed, VR will always feel like an incomplete expierience once people get used to the novelty.
Especially when we start talking about the myriad of other senses besides the eyes that currently are not catered for with VR goggles.
Add to that the missing killer app, and the general question what exactly VR should be (it is the common problem with things that can be anything... you need to focus on something before it can become any good, and everyone wants it to be something else), and I don't think even a vastly improved 2nd gen can make VR mainstream.
I predict it will take at least 10 years before the hardware becomes totally immersive, yet lightweight and cablefree, AND we have good VR expieriences that do matter to people beyond novelty... and the whole thing is affordable for the common guy that wants to spend 500$ for his system in total, at max!
We are not talking just about faster and cheaper GPUs here, more resolution, or other spec bumps. We are talking about new sensors and actuators not existing yet, about thinking of new ways to make the VR Expierience come alive. Nobody has developed a successfull unit that can synthesize any kind of smell... Nobody has as of yet developed a suit that can really give you the full tactile sensation.
How to keep people lost in a virtual world and walking around secure, as long as they still need to do the walking (read we cannot simulate the whole expierience directly in the brain)?
And more importantly, we are talking about huge social questions. How does society handle people that start living in VR more than reality (same problem as today with the game addicts, but on a whole new level)? How to handle all the abuse going on in the virtual space when it becomes even more "real"?
The general gamer today plays on toasters and complains about current games being almost unplayable at 20 FPS... how do they react when they see the eyewatering price for a 1st gen VR machine? Remember, with VR you cannot lower the FPS below a certain threshold... and lowering the graphics details is pretty weak when the whole point is immersion.
Will they be ready to still pay no chump change for a 1st gen system in 2 years when the 2nd gen VR systems hit the markets, for still way to high prices (those sensor suits and treadmills will not come cheap)?
For the next 5 or 6 years, current gen VR will be the toy of the rich, or people that are ready to spend some cash on their hobby. They are a minority.
). Do not misunderstand me: my vision is perfect then even before (1.4/1.0 to 1.5/1.0, before surgery I barely was 1.0/1.0 with contact lenses), it just tire my eyes a lot more. I am also (I was always) used to divert the focus from screen a lot, having a headset upon my eyes does not get me comfortable. I am also unable to focus on less then 15cm from eyes (before the surgery with my crappy vision I was able to focus just after a few couple of centimetres).
