I think Ash is correct. I think, maybe, this entire thread is a giant red flag warning to you that your ambition exceeds your means at the moment. From where I am sitting, not risking a penny (lol) - you have the option of releasing a game in a format that is less likely to make you enough money to repay loans OR releasing a game in such an unfinished state that you're unlikely to make the money at all.
Here's my problem. Loans. Games are SO risky. There's really no good reason to invest in making a game, statistically. We do it because we love it, but talk to just about any veteran developer and if you asked them if they ONLY cared about profit would they put 1 million dollars into making a new game or into something else and you'll pretty much get the unanimous decision for the something else. Usually those of us funding our own stuff have either started from a position where we can afford to lose (IE: I have savings enough and am not paying myself a salary) OR doing it via Kickstarter or similar outside funding. Few people take on loans (other than from family) to create a game. It's just too dangerous!
That said, the right way to do this is Kickstarter. That's your no-risk option for getting the money and testing the idea / concept of the game.
Unfortunately, I have exhausted all other options. Kickstarter is very competitive and the games there are mostly done. I really doubt people will crowdfund a 25% made game, and I risk buying PR for a project which may not get funded by Kickstarter.
My government start-up scheme have been lying in terms of which applicants it accepts. From its ads, it is portrayed as a company who helps people go from idea to business. Sucked in by this promise, I went and applied. Turned out they were lying in their ads and their requirements are exactly the same as a VC, but with 500% more hassle. When I asked them about this, their response was that they had their requirements increased but they didn't update the ads.
After getting messed around so much, I just want to release something and get cash flows which are sustainable. Whether that's F2P, Early Access...etc doesn't matter.
I have the means to serve the loans in case things go wrong.
But would 25% of the game be enough for Early Access? Because crowdfunding projects usually have 60%+ already done, and with my budget, I can only make 25% max.
Nobody can tell you. Regardless of using Early Access or crowdfunding or chapter releases, there are other issues which will be a lot harder to overcome. The most prominent issue is, that people will need to notice your game in the first place. There's a reason that markting budget of AAA title are so extremly high, sometimes (or always?) even higher than the development budget.
That is, a good game which will be noticed (either marketing or luck), will perform good regardless of how you release it.
There are some market rules when releasing a game. The following rules are my personal perception by reading post mortems, articles etc., so just my two cents again:
- The first one, especially for AAA title is, that the majority of profit with the game is made in the first week (similar to movies), thought this might not be true for indie games.
- The second rule for indie games is, if you don't sell a PC game on steam, you will most likely not make any profit at all (break even).
- The third rule is, as indie game, you will sell most games during special events (summer sale etc.).
- The forth rule, kickstarter for a indie game is a double edged sword. The real money from a campaign is quite small (provision, gifts, taxes etc.) which is traded for a lot of promises and dependencies.
Personally a game clearly marketed as early access is my favorit, with a price tag which represents the current state. People know what they get, people know, that the game will improve over time and is not finish yet, and you don't dive into some hard dependencies. But I fear that this isn't the best way to get rich
Marketing takes up most of my budget, so that's why I can only make 25% of the game. I understand the importance of marketing and that's a double-edged sword in all honesty. But that's a fact that to attain players, I must have marketing or luck. Now, I'm no gambler so I will enlist a veteran PR firm (got all quotes) to market the Greenlight/Early Access campaign as well as forming a strategy and acting upon it, to ensure that the game gets funded towards the end.
Now for your points:
-1st one, heard that for F2P games in China. So they decide to release many in-game items which in 90% of cases make their development costs within the first 2 weeks. So I believe it is 2 weeks, although your point still stands.
-2nd one, this is why I'm going for a Greenlight campaign if I were to release the game or Early Access if I were to go via alphafunding.
-3rd and 4th ones, true, no doubts about that.
Looking at it now, I think Early Access would be the best way forward. My levels are short because my entire GDD envisions the levels as being small but of higher quality than the levels it's inspired from. I don't think it's ready for a hard release, unless the levels are 1 hour each, and my GDD doesn't take that into account.
Although, it is not open-world. It's linear. I had toyed with it being open world, but looking at past experiences from even AAA veteran developers, if the game were to have a really engaging story, it would need to be linear. But I heard only open world games can get funded on Early Access and not modest, linear and lower-budget 3D platformers?