In my experience, the lifespan ... can charitably be estimated at five years
It depends on the market they're in.
Avid games will update their computers more frequently, and when they do, they tend to buy more advanced hardware.
Corporate environments vary. Corporate environments with lots of tech workers are going to buy new machines more frequently. From the companies I've got some perspective into thanks to contract work, it looks their current development machines are replaced at about 5 years old, their normal business machines (basically running Outlook and Word and Chrome) are on a longer cycle. At one of those companies they finally weaned off of XP and the oldest machines are from circa 2002.
Personally for my home machine I've been running on a Q6600 up until this Christmas, when I bought myself a nice new 4790K. That machine plays all their favorite games quite well, it just doesn't keep up with Dragon Age Inquisition and a few others I've recently acquired. I've passed that older machine to my teenagers who will likely use it for another 3-4 years. Over the years I've only added storage space and a newer graphics card. That machine is almost 7 years old, and will likely have a useful life of about 10-12 years.
Finally, I know some old neighbors who were running on Windows 98 on a machine bought back in 1999 until their kids gave Grandma a present of a new computer two years ago. Those machines were low-end when they were bought, but are adequate for their purposes.
That's why I wrote back at the beginning that defining your target market is important.
You might say "I want to define the Q6600, GeForce 8800, and 4GB memory as my key demographic." That was a high spec machine back in January 2007 when it was released. It was the first round of D3D10 class hardware. It is more powerful than you will find where kids go visit their grandparents. Even after all these years it is also more powerful than you will find in many office environments.
You may target a 2010 machine, perhaps the i5 2300, GeForce 480, and 4GB memory. That was a high spec back in 2010. Based on the Steam Hardware Survey that is better than half of all Steam users.
If your goal is to make a game that kids can download and play on old equipment, play when they visit grandparents, play on the machines that are often handed down through two or three other people before being made available to them, then you'll still want to target DX9 class hardware with dual core around 2GHz and 2GB memory.
If your goal is to make a game that people can play on moderately fast machines, or on machines that have been handed down a single time, then target DX10 class graphics with either dual or quad core around 2.5 GHz and 4GB memory.
If your goal is high end modern game (probably far beyond what a hobby developer can build) then feel free to require machines built in the last two years.
Again: Define your intended market. Your requirements will follow.