Hey,

Been reading a few threads regarding windows 8 lately, and a funny thought crossed my mind.
Now, I won't say that's going to happen, nor that it would even be likely, but let's imagine that tomorrow, microsoft is no more, and that windows 8 is the last operating system that they'd develop.

A few years from now, what would the install base look like?
People sticking to windows 7?
Increased linux install base?
More MACs?
New OS on the PC market (and who do you think would be up for this?)

I've been devving since back in the day, long before I had windows 3.1, but for some reason, the last decades have led me to imagine windows would "always be the way".

I think its an interesting topic even if its in the realm of imagination alone.

I think the future of computing is trending away from the traditional desktop computer and going mobile. If Microsoft doesn't shift with that trend, they may still lead the way in market share on the desktop, but fewer and fewer people will be using desktops, so their markets will contract and their lead will become somewhat irrelevant (sort of like saying, "I'm the fastest out of anyone in my class...at morse code!").

In terms of big data and computing, the trend is also going into cloud and distributed computing. The leaders in the server markets are VMWare and Linux.

Will Windows9 be built and released? Yes, I'm pretty certain of it. It won't be as revolutionary on the desktop computer as it will be for mobile computing and server clustering. Look for Microsoft to continue enriching their ecosystem and participating in the various markets by releasing new OS's which bring desktops, servers and mobiles together under a common platform. This, I would argue, is their strong suite, much moreso than their OS. Their OS is just a vector/platform to bring their other products to market.

A few years from now, what would the install base look like?
People sticking to windows 7?

Most likely.

Increased linux install base?
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Unlikely, unless someone makes a better Linux. Linux still remains unusable to the general population due to its lack of marketing and app support.

More MACs?
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If Apple continues to release new products, then yes. People are more attracted to newer products. If Apple keeps releasing new OSes, while Windows stuck at Windows 8, then overtime, people will use Apple products more than Windows.

New OS on the PC market (and who do you think would be up for this?)
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I doubt it. If anything, Chrome might be the new OS, but Chrome has very little chance to steal the market share from Apple.

When it comes to anything I want to buy new in the future, I would go where the games go.
If they all follow Valve over to Linux (shudder) then after a few years I might buy one.
If they all go to Macintosh OS X then, well, I already have one (under my bed; it sees the day of light only when I need to test my engine on it or iOS).
And if the industry is still strongly focused on Windows 8 then I will just get Windows 8. Since we are talking about the distance future here, by that point we will be able to see if Microsoft is trying to transition into a fully Metro style of things or if it really is just nothing but an add-on to normal standard desktop Windows 8.

Finally, since I really don’t want to use Linux or Macintosh OS X any more than absolutely necessary (for developing my engine), I will most likely just stick to consoles for gaming and stay with Windows XP and Windows 7 for PC use.

I am glad I started my previous topic on this because it seems that Metro is just that, at least for now.
Microsoft has been pouring so much marketing into its Metro feature that people are getting the idea that that is the main focus on Windows 8, and that the desktop mode is secondary.

If we assume 2 things:
#1: Windows 8 is just the same as Windows 7, with Metro mode tacked onto the side for the additional ability to play mobile games on desktop.
#2: The desktop feature is a priority that will never go away, and Metro will always be just an add-on.

Then actually all seems good. If that is all true.
#2 worries me, however, because of how much they have marketed and the fact that it needs special hardware to use correctly. Once this hardware has a substantial install base it only makes sense that they would push more into the Metro side of things.
Even if they do continue to support desktop mode it would eventually become secondary. Little support for new features etc.

Ultimately my answer is just, “Wait and see.”


L. Spiro

I don't believe that Metro is anything to be scared of. Microsoft have been trying to push the desktop programming model away from Win32 since at least the early 2000s and so far have failed; all indications I can see is that they're just going to fail again. Win32 is just too deeply entrenched, and despite the fact that it may be crochety and awkward at times, it's well understood and has a huge existing knowledge and application base that's not going to disappear overnight, or even over the timescale of a few years/major releases.

On the other hand if they end up developing a sane and usable API/framework then who knows?

The one factor that is being ignored is the huge corporate install base. That's traditionally ultra-conservative, and even if Windows 8 was the end, it's not going to budge for at least 5 years. Hell, we're even currently having trouble getting away from IE6 (thank you Oracle) never mind being in a position where we can begin to think about life beyond Windows 8.

Linux on the desktop is a joke. Sure the likes of Ubuntu do a decent enough job, but for practical day to day non-technical use it's not even in the same universe, never mind the same ballpark. In my former role as an enterprise network admin it's something I evaluated every few years, and at one point in time (the Vista transition) it looked as though a switch to Linux may have been less trouble than a Vista upgrade, but the Linux distros never really took advantage of that and I firmly believe that the Linux communities are wasting far more energy on infighting than on just making it a better and more cohesive all-round package.

I don't doubt that the day will eventually come when Microsoft ends and there is no more Windows, but I don't think we'll see it in our lifetimes. Even if nothing else, that corporate desktop I mentioned is a big enough money-spinner to keep a scaled-down company afloat, and the move to tablet/touch technology is not as relevant there right now.

When that day comes who knows what the options will be?

The one factor that is being ignored is the huge corporate install base. That's traditionally ultra-conservative, and even if Windows 8 was the end, it's not going to budge for at least 5 years.

Ya, my office just started transitionning out of Windows XP SP3, and we're the private sector. Imagine government management offices

I don't doubt that the day will eventually come when Microsoft ends and there is no more Windows, but I don't think we'll see it in our lifetimes.

I don't know how old you are, but I got to see Microsoft come to life, so I might also end up seeing it die. I mean cmon, I've see BBS die, internet breathe, etc. I wouldn't be so surprised by a quick shift, but all it needs is a little push, to quote the Joker. I'm wondering what that little push might be, not fooling myself into thinking that the stand-out from Zenimax is going to affect this in any way shape or form.

I think people underestimate the draw of the physical hardware. I think more and more frequently we will see hardware driving adoption more than the operating system. At the moment I legitimately think Windows 8 is being released on the widest range of desirable hardware except for maybe the nexus 10.

I think the push for interoperability between WP8/W8/xbox is non trivial too, though I'm not sure the impact it will have. It will be something to watch.

I don't know anyone who actually wants a windows 8 machine. Plenty of people know they'll get one, but I have yet to meet anyone that actually desires a Surface (or any other windows 8 based tech).

On the other hand, almost everyone I know either has or wants an iPad/iPhone or even an S3/Galaxy tab.
I think MS have a bigger marketing problem then they realise.

You actually might be partly right about Windows 8 being the last "Windows" release since they are at least considering changing the name with the project codenamed Midori (Not the browser). Not sure how accurate this information is since its from wiki however based off similar projects we know they are pushing forward more with the idea of a Managed Code OS. Should be interesting at any rate.

I've heard that Win 8 will be the very last version.

Honestly I don't care about any proprietary OS anymore. I can do all with Ubuntu and only boot other OS to recompile stuff. (OSX86 and Win 8 with
disabled Metro, as this seems awkward to me.)
Where will we be in 20 years? No idea, more mobile and cloud with thin desktops? Need to watch some science fiction for ideas.