@way2lazy2care: Yes, no doubt a later-born Carmack would still be doing great stuff. But as a "well on his way to being a tech lead at a major company", would it be a name we'd be talking about on here, or a name well known by your average gamer?

I think we are arguing different things. I am not necessarily arguing he'd be as famous. Just that his opinion would carry similar weight. I'm sure fewer people would know his name, but I still think a lot of people would take his opinion fairly seriously; if for no other reason than he usually gives pretty deep and relatively unbiased reasons for his opinions in comparison to a lot of other people.

Maybe I'm skewed being an SE so just what he's saying carries a lot of weight just by nature of what he's saying rather than who he is. Other people without my background might take him less seriously because of that, but I'm not entirely convinced of that.

These days he just says whatver hes paid to say.

Did you read that on a blog and think it sounded cool to repeat, because that's a majorly stupid assertion to make.

Not being up to date or as important a person in the field - fine. Even saying he's out of touch and not worth listening too - your opinion so fine. But claiming he's bribed to say things is moronic and actually illegal. It's not like he's short of cash.

RPRT Myth:

There can always be another "Best", but there can only be one "First". - Grandmaster Flash

Back in the days of Doom and Quake, there where tons of "First" in Games. Nowadays, that's not that possible (at least in shooters). The result: One can't create the same impact anymore that Doom, Quake, and others back then had.

Obviously, new "First" kinda things can still happen (Minecraft, Angry Birds come to mind.. both having predessors, but where still kinda first of their kind).

But in a matured market, "Firsts" are less common. Thus, it's harder to make your name part of history.

I think current market, publisher / company no longer want a lone hero - they doesn't want follower to move away along side their hero. This even apply to studios. This way key developer can come and go, studios can be shut down - but people still enjoy the next version of the same game. I mean, other than Notch, name a game that can be associated with a person, or even a few person (except indie - such as braid). Personally I can't. It's like the moment you work, you're given a gag order, and only the marketing team can say anything - and it always focus on the publisher.

I think someone already learned that the hard way with Richard Garriot.

As for John Carmack, yes. If he were grow up these days instead of long time ago, he is still the person he is. But he won't be John Carmack as we know it, he would just another lead developer. maybe chief lead developer. To make it easy, if he was born long ago, he is Steve Job. If he was born now, he is the creator of C (what was his name?) See. That's my point.

The awesome thing abut John Carmack is that he's not only smart AND genius, he is far more than that. It really hard to explain, but he just plain awesome. I listen and watch a lot of speech by a lot of people on a lot of topics (Richard Feyman one example, Buzz Aldrin once punch a person for asking about the moon landing hoax). But John Carmack, he not only understand smart things and explain it in simple way, but he can also understand stupid question and give a smart answer the people actually want to hear.

Of course, timing is everything. If you don't understand this, you should definitely give Outliers a read.

Just like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, being born at the right time, in the right place, with access to the right resources is as (or more) important than raw talent. John Carmack is a textbook example.

Do you think it's a coincidence that Carmack (iD), Tim Sweeney (Epic), Rob Pardo (Blizzard), Chris Roberts (Wing Commander) were all born in 1968-70? Old enough to make then 20-22 when OpenGL was created.

You can see the same patterns if you go back to some of the pre-3D legends. Peter Molyneux (Lionhead), Will Wright (Maxis), Richard Garriot (Ultima), Gabe Newell (Valve), Scott Miller (Apogee)--all born in 1959-62. Old enough to make them 20-23 when the first IBM PC game out.

I suspect you'll find simliar patterns if you go back to pre-PC developers. Sid Meier (Firaxis), Miyamoto (Nintendo), Ken WIlliams (Sierra) were born in 1952-54, making them (shocker) 22-24 when the Atari 2600 came out.

Of course, timing is everything. If you don't understand this, you should definitely give Outliers a read.

Just like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, being born at the right time, in the right place, with access to the right resources is as or more important than raw talent. John Carmack is a textbook example.

Do you think it's a coincidence that Carmack (iD), Tim Sweeney (Epic), Rob Pardo (Blizzard), Chris Roberts (Wing Commander) were all born in 1968-70? Old enough to make then 20-22 when OpenGL was created.

You can see the same patterns if you go back to some of the pre-3D legends. Peter Molyneux (Lionhead), Will Wright (Maxis), Richard Garriot (Ultima), Gabe Newell (Valve)--all born in 1959-62. Old enough to make them 20-22 when the first IBM PC game out.

Bill Gates yes, Steve Jobs no. Steve Jobs saw what everybody else can't see and won't see. If Steve Jobs came 10 year later, we would can only have tablet or mp3 player 10 year later, because other people just can't see it. Like it or not, he came and make unix (linux) actually a mass appeal (the next one is android, which is much much much later). record industry can't see it despite amazon success with books, and amazon itself did do it early enough, itune came first. i can go on and on, but if 10 people give the same resources, none can do anything because they keep saying 'it wont work, it wont work', and steve jobs came and make something happen using the same resource.

as a human he made mistakes, and i hate him for some of his mistakes (how he treat his daughter, for instance), and cancelling corporate charity (if you yourself doesn't want to donate, at least do a matching program). but i give credit where it's due.

John Carmack is not an outliers. Outliers is when too many thing came into place that barely happen to other people. But remember, John Carmack is not michael abrash, neither the inventor of binary tree, or ray tracing, or too many to point. he just combine things together.

I still remember an interview with Ken Silverman (of Build engine fame - you really need to check him out to understand Carmack). You see, he was talking about Carmack interview. If given only one person to hire - who would it be, he says 'Ken Silverman'. Why? All kids have access to PC at that time. There are many info on game programming on the net. But you know what, there is only one Ken Silverman. That is not outliers, that is working very, very, hard.

Steve Jobs is definitely an outlier, in fact he was used as an example in the book. He was born the year before Gates. I'm not saying he wasn't a genius, just that he was perfectly positioned to launch the PC revolution out of his basement when he was 21. Had they been born 5 years earlier, they'd have already been working for IBM programming mainframes, married with kids by the time the PC was invented.

Many factors need to come together for a true outlier (to change the world), but timing is the biggest.

To make it easy, if he was born long ago, he is Steve Job. If he was born now, he is the creator of C (what was his name?) See. That's my point.

Firstly that's a really dumb analogy on a programming site where many think Jobs is the lesser of the two. Secondly, DR was older than SJ.

The awesome thing abut John Carmack is that he's not only smart AND genius, he is far more than that. It really hard to explain, but he just plain awesome. I listen and watch a lot of speech by a lot of people on a lot of topics (Richard Feyman one example, Buzz Aldrin once punch a person for asking about the moon landing hoax). But John Carmack, he not only understand smart things and explain it in simple way, but he can also understand stupid question and give a smart answer the people actually want to hear.
[/quote]You're saying Carmack out-Feynmans Feynman?

Bill Gates yes, Steve Jobs no. Steve Jobs saw what everybody else can't see and won't see. If Steve Jobs came 10 year later, we would can only have tablet or mp3 player 10 year later, because other people just can't see it.

What are you on about? MP3 players existed for years before the iPod, and tablets have been around for a while... Apple/Jobs made/make their fortune by taking existing ideas and refining them. Unlike many, I DON'T say that as a put-down, but it's still true.

d000hg, you are actually explaining my points :-)

My first point is that John Carmack (like steve job) was popular because he was born at a time people can become popular (a time of heroes). If he was born now (when company prefer to put company name first, individuals last) - he would be like the creator of C. Died and nobody know much. Trust me, companies doesn't want their stock to dive when someone instrumental (create a lot of patent for the company, for example) died. The time for one heroes for one company has died - only replaceable CEO nowdays.

I doesn't know what you mean by out-Feynmans, but he has a knack for saying certain things regarding religions, and gods. And you know what happens when this kind of thing clashed. John Carmack, on the other hand, AFAIK, know how to handle things wisely, politically, and up to fact - no matter if it was a land mine topic (DX vs OGL, PC vs console, open source vs closed source), software patent, etc. I once saw his interview/speech at the release of RAGE, and he, well, just different. I saw a lot of videos of genius, smart, etc (TED, youtube, etc) and Carmack, IMHO, is just different.

Regarding the mp3 player - that also my point. He is not outliers. Everybody can do it, and has been doing it (on and off), they just, well, i don't know what wrong, but things just not unlike how steve jobs did it. even tablet are not as popular as when steve job actually did it. If he outliers, he was born at a time he have the best access to do things, and other people just don't. My point is, he was born at a time everybody else CAN do it, and have the same resources to do it, just DIDN'T. I mean, we all know where PIXAR came from, right? That the thing about SJ, even though everybody can do it, it seems that he is the one that did it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egg_of_Columbus

This is like the leader: Born or raised? question.

Last time I checked, Will Wright wasn't 21 when he designed The Sims, nor Spore. Both games were released post 2000 and were completely innovative.

Then there is George Broussard, key people marked as co-creator of Duke Nukem. He never managed to move on from the success he had, never able to repeat it (Duke Nukem Forever...) going insane about creating a new game that would blow gamers' mind once again.

Some people are more talent than luck, others are more luck than talent. Both factors are in, which one is more important: "it just depends".
There's no point going on with the discussion.

was popular because he was born at a time people can become popular[/quote]
Today too! In fact we have a lot more resources than they did; both to learn & become famous. We have Internet, Youtube tutorials, blogs, etc.
Look at Justin Bieber (did I just say J... God how low I've fallen), he wouldn't be successful without Youtube. But may be in the past he would have found another way, like the Beatles did. Or may be he was just lucky, which means he wouldn't be anyone without today's technologies. As it's been said, opportunities are always coming. The Zynga guy took the viral Facebook opportunity. Today that door is closed, but another will open, and only a few will take the chance. From those few, there will be some who will be very conscious of the opportunity with a lot of effort invested, and others who would have no clue of the bright future that's waiting for them and they'll still get rich.
In the same way, the first guys in the AppStore made a lot more money than the latecomers.