[quote name='Dmytry' timestamp='1320832762' post='4882054']
Yep. Global scale is what matters now though, as the market really is global. re: 3d printers fear: the working class which would have been rendered redundant by 3d printing is primarily in china anyway. Massively exploited, as how much you earn is not really a function of how much you produce but a function of how much you own personally and collectively. E.g. if I didn't own anything, I'd not be able to decline a job offer of working for the most basic food, animal feed grade, total of maybe $10/month.
3D printers don't replace the working class.
They replace highly skilled jobs.
They replace the car designer. Before, they needed to train for years, building models out of clay, they would need a combination of art and hand skills. They are artists, sculptors, and much more.
With 3D printer, a CAD model is ran through a few algorithmic permutations (running on a building-sized cluster), then it spits out 55 variations of next car model over night. Suddenly, instead of having some of high paying positions working 3 months for one, you just take pictures of finished models and send them to focus groups. Don't even need people for that, it can be automated, so skip the middle management as well.
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3d printing has been used for prototyping for this sort of use for ages, and what you have described has never happened, and especially not the drop in required training to design a car.
Hell, it has not happened even for the character design in computer games, despite it making total sense to automate content generation.
Or toys. Today, there are studios which design them. Many are low quality, but there are somewhat big franchising deals. So when a movie comes out, an office in US acts as proxy between hundreds of manufacturers around the globe to ensure the production is ready by movie release.
Enter 3D printers. Designers at studio reuse the 3D CGI models and put those blue prints on the web, for anyone to download and print them, for $5.99. And the high-paying office in US is gone. Manufacturers in China don't lose much, they'll still be mass producing models for those without printers.
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Say hello to the toys made of more than just plain plastic, or having several moving parts.
A large portion of support sector becomes redundant, including logistics. Buying a replacement part for a computer, car or various other devices is an absurdly large scale operation these days. Starting at design, it then needs to go through life cycle management, logistics and planning, global distribution, down to training of staff at points of sale or repair shops. The number of high-paying jobs such chain supports is vast. From IT (building systems to manage all of these parts) to management (coordinating the flow between all of these), localization (translators at various countries), logistics (again, software and operations, warehouses, dozens of individual companies, cleaner-to-CEO). At the end of day, even gas industry profits due to transporation.
With 3D printer, when a car/device/product is finished, the CAD models that were used to make it are put on the internet. User visits a page, prints the part. Optionally, this can be done at repair shop, where they install it. The entire chain becomes redundant, affecting *millions* of currently middle-class jobs, essentially making them obsolete.
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Star trek replicators might accomplish that. The 3d printers make plastic parts, and do that very, very inefficiently. The parts need to be assembled, and combined with non-printable parts (good luck have fun printing electric motors). At home? Your average joe makes / relates to web comics about how hard it is to assemble ikea furniture!
As for unskilled jobs? Well, someone needs to make plastic pellets that printers use. And pay no attention to those lung burning fumes while doing so.
Changes that are coming won't affect unskilled jobs, those will remain plentiful. It's the middle-class and white collar jobs that aren't needed anymore since machinery and computers do it better.
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This sort of fear is as old as technology itself. Did the computers eliminate need for accountants (as was feared)? I wish.
The new technologies, many times over, have failed to render anyone redundant, as everyone just starts consuming more (which is rather terrible for the environment though).