- Do we need it
RIGHT NOW?
- Yes. Japan right now is importing 6GW of power to cover the needs and they still have reductions. That is only to compensate for the loss of 11 reactors, right now. And most of industry is shut down and several cities are completely off grid.
- "If it cannot be built today, can we arrange to build it tomorrow? Different wording: do we want to do
research so this becomes possible in the
short term? (short term is "a couple of years" in this case)"
- From first reactor to reliable commercial use it took 20 years. So something that is being used in small-scale prototype facilities (such as tidal plants) would take 10-20 years to put into practice. Governments move slowly, there isn't much way around it.
If fusion power plant started producing electricity today, it would take 20 years for large scale use. Anything that is not a prototype today doesn't count. We are not talking about improvements, but about replacing urgently needed infrastructure.
- How much
energy output per year?
- Electricity cannot be stored. It's about peak matters. This is not coal mining, where you chip away, then put it slowly on a ship and bring it in in one load. Second problem is, demand changes during the day and grid needs to compensate. Electric plants ramp production up and down over the course of the day and infrastructure is built according to that. When wires a connected, their topology, transformers, etc. needs to be built around those facts.
- "How much
uptime year?"
- 100%. Just like today. We are talking about replacement of existing nuclear plants, not bonus electricity. The absolute minimum that would return to previous absolutely needed minimum.
"How much
money to run (maintainance)?"
How much
money to build?
How much
money to dispose?"
- Not a factor. If one source is no longer available, alternatives must be used regardless of price. If that means inflation of 20%, 15% increase in all prices, so be it. Look at Germany. The transition to solar and wind power bankrupted plenty of small- and mid-sized heavy consumers.
Any cost necessary, evaluate impact on GDP and growth as well as debt. Just remember the Tunisia, Egypt et al. Slight increase in food prices is one of most reliable predictors of civil unrest.
- "How long must be able to operate (
technical life)? 20y? 40y? 60y?"
- Forever, with projected growth. We're not looking for temporary replacement, we're looking at shutting down all nuclear, replacing it with something else, then allowing for economic growth of same level.
- "Are
CO2 emissions a problem?"
- I don't know. Are they? Are nuclear emissions a problem? It probably depends on scale.
"Do we want to
consume little amount of
terrain? How much?Do we need to
centralize production? Perhaps we want a
fleet of smaller, units instead?"
- Some of it probably needs to be located relatively close to large consumers.
- "How
reliable must it be against earthquakes/hurricanes/terrorism?"
- Gee, I don't know. Earthquakes and hurricanes don't happen in Japan, do they? It probably needs to be safe from Godzilla.
"Do we need to cover
base load or peak load?
Are we talking about
day peak or year peak?
Do we need to
route the energy to a
specific section of the grid?"Replacing the existing nuclear infrastructure. So same numbers.
- "Do we need to
move generator far away from consumption?
Is there any
hazard to public health we are willing to accept? Is there the case to move this away from population?"
- Yes, there is a hazard for population. 20% of electricity is missing, hospitals are shut down, people can't boil water. Replace the power source now, so that people can start living again. Now. Nuclear is doing it right now - when will your alternative come?
- "How do we want to
fund this? (government takes direct action)
Do we want to
subsidize this? (private citizens takes direct action)
Are
technical risks well known? Can we have sufficient guarantee issues will be promptly solved? (this is very much like risk assessment in SW development cycles)
Any
economical risks?"
- You tell me. Convince me that your alternative is better.
Risks and costs of long-term large-scale deployment of anything except - hydro, coal and nuclear is not known. It takes 50-100 years to examine all risk in real world operation.
I asked a simple question. You are mayor of SimJapan. You need to replace 20% of nuclear power. Today, here and now. Your budget has a deficit, the economy has been stalled for decades, during last week you lost several hundred billion dollars.
What do you do?
)[/quote]
