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Trading Federal Income Tax Cut for SS payroll tax cut. Good idea?

Started by December 12, 2010 09:12 AM
93 comments, last by markm 14 years, 2 months ago
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Original post by smr
I don't know if it's a good idea as far as the economics of it are concerned, but I do think it could work out politically for the Democrats. Just look at the hypocrisy of the Republicans on this issue! They got elected partially by slamming the Dem's on the deficit, but in the end all they really cared about was getting their tax cut for the top income earners. Putting this deal into law will only confirm what everyone's been saying all along: The Republicans are out to make the rich richer.


As if that needed any confirmation. The crux of the Republican argument (this is true for all flavors of Republicans over the past 30 years) is that making the rich richer will be good for everyone, despite evidence that is generally contradictory to that assumption.

They are using deficits in an attempt to destroy federal spending on social programs, but they don't really care about worsening the crisis because they figure that once a hard fiscal choice is actually made they are confident that either, 1. It will break their way, killing social programs to protect regressive tax policy, and/or 2. they'll be dead, and have already gotten theirs.

But I don't think that Social Security is going to disappear. Any cuts at all will be extremely unpopular with SS recipients, and with the baby boomers poised to start collecting there will be a huge bloc of voters that will not support anyone espousing further reductions for long, regardless of other considerations. There will be too much for a politician to gain by courting them, especially as they increasingly join the AARP (a hugely influential lobby in itself), for there to be support far-reaching enough to kill SS.

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Original post by szecs
What's with all these politics??!!


[not sarcasm] Don't know about you but this is my perfered site for political news and information. [/not sarcasm]
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Quote:
Original post by smr
I don't know if it's a good idea as far as the economics of it are concerned, but I do think it could work out politically for the Democrats. Just look at the hypocrisy of the Republicans on this issue! They got elected partially by slamming the Dem's on the deficit, but in the end all they really cared about was getting their tax cut for the top income earners. Putting this deal into law will only confirm what everyone's been saying all along: The Republicans are out to make the rich richer.

in the end? All the people in the recent vote that weren't in office already aren't even in office until january, which I believe is after the proposed renewal of the tax cuts.
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Original post by way2lazy2care
Quote:
Original post by smr
I don't know if it's a good idea as far as the economics of it are concerned, but I do think it could work out politically for the Democrats. Just look at the hypocrisy of the Republicans on this issue! They got elected partially by slamming the Dem's on the deficit, but in the end all they really cared about was getting their tax cut for the top income earners. Putting this deal into law will only confirm what everyone's been saying all along: The Republicans are out to make the rich richer.

in the end? All the people in the recent vote that weren't in office already aren't even in office until january, which I believe is after the proposed renewal of the tax cuts.

And most if not all of those people support the tax cuts anyway... Tea Party and Repub alike.

Beginner in Game Development?  Read here. And read here.

 

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Original post by Alpha_ProgDes
Quote:
Original post by way2lazy2care
Quote:
Original post by smr
I don't know if it's a good idea as far as the economics of it are concerned, but I do think it could work out politically for the Democrats. Just look at the hypocrisy of the Republicans on this issue! They got elected partially by slamming the Dem's on the deficit, but in the end all they really cared about was getting their tax cut for the top income earners. Putting this deal into law will only confirm what everyone's been saying all along: The Republicans are out to make the rich richer.

in the end? All the people in the recent vote that weren't in office already aren't even in office until january, which I believe is after the proposed renewal of the tax cuts.

And most if not all of those people support the tax cuts anyway... Tea Party and Repub alike.


the point is that it is far too soon to be making "In the end..." type accusations when they aren't even in office yet.

If it passes before they are in office it means at least enough democrats also supported the revised tax cuts.
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Original post by Khaiy
As if that needed any confirmation. The crux of the Republican argument (this is true for all flavors of Republicans over the past 30 years) is that making the rich richer will be good for everyone, despite evidence that is generally contradictory to that assumption.
Please be VERY careful with that argument.

Consider that two of the three richest per-capita states are Idaho and North Dakota. Why? These are dirt-poor farmers and ranchers whose farms are run as personal assets. They spend their money and mortgage all their land on seed or grain, tractors, fuel, and seasonal workers. Then they hope to recover most of it by selling their produce to the large co-ops. Generally their net income is at or below the poverty line.

On paper they are millionares or multi-millionares with land, tractors, irrigation equipment, and much more.

Yet they are dirt poor.

The bill which was (thankfully!) not passed did not take this kind of situation into account. Using gross income is a terrible mistake.

There are many other classes of small businesses that are similar where people are "dirt poor millionaires".



Another thing to beware of in policy is the frequent cry of "taxing the rich". A tax on resources you already have is nearly criminal and quite likely to be unconstitutional, as opposed to a tax where money changes hands (income and sales) which is at least somewhat palatable. Taking resources from someone simply because they have it is (almost always) theft. Yet the media generally won't spend time on the details and end up creating public outcries for things that are both unconstitutional and contrary to the founding principles of the nation.


Taxes are an incredibly complex issue.

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They are using deficits in an attempt to destroy federal spending on social programs, but they don't really care about worsening the crisis because they figure that once a hard fiscal choice is actually made they are confident that either, 1. It will break their way, killing social programs to protect regressive tax policy, and/or 2. they'll be dead, and have already gotten theirs.
Welcome to politics. It is a theme that has been sung since the beginning of the country. Look back to the Civil War, when the 1860's saw us cross the billion dollar mark. Back then the number was just as unfathomable as the trillion dollar marks of today.

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But I don't think that Social Security is going to disappear. Any cuts at all will be extremely unpopular with SS recipients, and with the baby boomers poised to start collecting there will be a huge bloc of voters that will not support anyone espousing further reductions for long, regardless of other considerations. There will be too much for a politician to gain by courting them, especially as they increasingly join the AARP (a hugely influential lobby in itself), for there to be support far-reaching enough to kill SS.

Social Security must (by necessity) be completely revised or phased out over the coming years.

No politician wants to do it. Partly this is because it is incredibly complex. Partly because it must contain bad news for a lot of people, and they don't want to have their name associated with it.



I'm in one of the few states that have a constitutionally mandated balanced budget. By something I don't believe to be coincidence, it is also consistently ranked as a best-managed state by many organizations (such as the The Pew Charitable Trusts and others). Over the past two decades it has been interesting to compare the short-sightedness and petty bickering at the federal level against the longer-term discussion and also petty bickering at our state level. The budget is perhaps the most interesting point in the discussions.


You can't blame any political party or the other for the federal government's lack of financial responsibility. There are more than two centuries of history showing that all political parties will gladly extend the public debt rather than give up their own federally-funded programs.

I heard a radio ad (on the east coast) begging people come to the federally-funded school breakfast and school dinner programs citing that they need enough people so it stays free. I was dumbfounded that first such a program would exist, "free" breakfasts and dinners for anybody who wants it, not just those with financial need; and second, that public funds would ever be considered "free". Public monies are not free, but they are treated as such by so many people. Fix that, and it would go a long way in fixing public debt.

It is painful, and that is why politicians take great lengths to avoid it.
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Original post by frob
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Original post by Khaiy
As if that needed any confirmation. The crux of the Republican argument (this is true for all flavors of Republicans over the past 30 years) is that making the rich richer will be good for everyone, despite evidence that is generally contradictory to that assumption.
Please be VERY careful with that argument.

Consider that two of the three richest per-capita states are Idaho and North Dakota. Why? These are dirt-poor farmers and ranchers whose farms are run as personal assets. They spend their money and mortgage all their land on seed or grain, tractors, fuel, and seasonal workers. Then they hope to recover most of it by selling their produce to the large co-ops. Generally their net income is at or below the poverty line.

On paper they are millionares or multi-millionares with land, tractors, irrigation equipment, and much more.

Yet they are dirt poor.

The bill which was (thankfully!) not passed did not take this kind of situation into account. Using gross income is a terrible mistake.

There are many other classes of small businesses that are similar where people are "dirt poor millionaires".

I'm glad you brought this up. I am amazed that the Gov't or the IRS can't differentiate Kobe Bryant or Bill Gates from the "dirt poor millionaires" you've described (and are quite real). Which is why it dumbfounds that A) this differentiation hasn't been made yet and b) the Rich are still allowed to use these DPMs as a shield to continue these tax cuts.

You make SS solvent by upping the limit and/or stopping the federal waste that leads the gov't to borrow from medicare and SS in the first place.

Beginner in Game Development?  Read here. And read here.

 

Quote:
Original post by frob
Quote:
Original post by Khaiy
As if that needed any confirmation. The crux of the Republican argument (this is true for all flavors of Republicans over the past 30 years) is that making the rich richer will be good for everyone, despite evidence that is generally contradictory to that assumption.
Please be VERY careful with that argument.

Consider that two of the three richest per-capita states are Idaho and North Dakota. Why? These are dirt-poor farmers and ranchers whose farms are run as personal assets. They spend their money and mortgage all their land on seed or grain, tractors, fuel, and seasonal workers. Then they hope to recover most of it by selling their produce to the large co-ops. Generally their net income is at or below the poverty line.

On paper they are millionares or multi-millionares with land, tractors, irrigation equipment, and much more.

Yet they are dirt poor.

The bill which was (thankfully!) not passed did not take this kind of situation into account. Using gross income is a terrible mistake.


A significant consideration to make about Idaho and North Dakota is their low population density. It's not all family farms-- there's a huge amount of factory farming, and, in the case of North Dakota, natural resource industry (particularly natural gas right now). These are run by firms who dramatically distort per capita income figures without reflecting much of anything about individuals there. Also with North Dakota, they have barely been affected by the recession due to not really taking part in the boom of the last twenty years, so their fiscal situation is looking comparatively good right now, even though they may not be a "rich" state.

That said, farming is an extremely difficult path to pursue. There are tax acknowledgements of this, but not enough to avoid the trap you reference above. In the case of the paper-millionaire farmer, a higher tax rate certainly doesn't make sense. But after business deductions (which modify the base number for taxable income, I'm told), people who invest in their own businesses like farms tend to not have as high of taxable income as they appear to on paper. But regardless of this, you are absolutely right that tax law needs to take this situation into account, and any bill which fails to do so will contain a serious flaw.

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There are many other classes of small businesses that are similar where people are "dirt poor millionaires".


Not really. Have a look at this, and then this, for starters.

Some people will fall between the cracks of this, or any proposal to change the tax code in any way. But this is far from being an inherent problem that will echo thrgouh massive segments of the business population, forcing them to pay top-bracket taxes while taking home poverty-level money. This was even less a problem when Democrats offered to raise the cutoff for the top marginal rate bracket to $1 million, which Republicans voted down.

Quote:

Another thing to beware of in policy is the frequent cry of "taxing the rich". A tax on resources you already have is nearly criminal and quite likely to be unconstitutional, as opposed to a tax where money changes hands (income and sales) which is at least somewhat palatable. Taking resources from someone simply because they have it is (almost always) theft. Yet the media generally won't spend time on the details and end up creating public outcries for things that are both unconstitutional and contrary to the founding principles of the nation.


Taxes are an incredibly complex issue.


Absolutely they are. But no one is suggesting taxing money you have. Changing the income tax rates only affects income, not, say, savings or capital gains. If you pull $5 million a year, you would face the higher rates talked about in the bill, but that wouldn't be on anything that you held-- it would only be on the new money coming in (and even then, only in certain ways). Something like a property tax, owed and paid on land and property that someone owns, is an entirely different matter and not directly affected by income tax rates at all.

But one of the biggest issues with taxation is that it's hard to control the tax burden very well. If you're a millionaire, you have income generating options that someone who makes $30,000 annually does not. You can never lift a finger and live decadently on capital gains, for example. You may suggest that it is unfair to take more (as a percentage of total income) because they have more, but is it fair that the rich have special access to special markets while not necessarily generating any value to anyone? While getting more money in this way than a lower income person and paying a lower tax rate on it? And don't forget the host of tax deductions that only apply to the wealthy, or that only those who can hire a savvy accountant would ever even know about.

A Flat or Fair tax may sound fair, but it hits lower income people far harder than higher because it represents a greater share of their total income. This is especially true in America's current situation, where our debt and deficits have everything to do with poor national bookkeeping and most of the monetary benefits of those actions flowed to the very wealthy. It's not about future spending alone, it's also about the bill for spending that is already just a memory.

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They are using deficits in an attempt to destroy federal spending on social programs, but they don't really care about worsening the crisis because they figure that once a hard fiscal choice is actually made they are confident that either, 1. It will break their way, killing social programs to protect regressive tax policy, and/or 2. they'll be dead, and have already gotten theirs.


Welcome to politics. It is a theme that has been sung since the beginning of the country. Look back to the Civil War, when the 1860's saw us cross the billion dollar mark. Back then the number was just as unfathomable as the trillion dollar marks of today.


It's still disingenuous, particularly when the people who increase in one area to "starve" another refuse to ever pull back the increase they started. And it still doesn't solve any problems, but rather exacerbates them, which means that we as citizens should vehemently reject it.

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But I don't think that Social Security is going to disappear. Any cuts at all will be extremely unpopular with SS recipients, and with the baby boomers poised to start collecting there will be a huge bloc of voters that will not support anyone espousing further reductions for long, regardless of other considerations. There will be too much for a politician to gain by courting them, especially as they increasingly join the AARP (a hugely influential lobby in itself), for there to be support far-reaching enough to kill SS.


Social Security must (by necessity) be completely revised or phased out over the coming years.

No politician wants to do it. Partly this is because it is incredibly complex. Partly because it must contain bad news for a lot of people, and they don't want to have their name associated with it.


Which is why I don't think that the program is going to be cut, in the medium- and long-terms. Too many people will be using it, a lot of them even depending on it, and they are a group that consistently turns out to vote in huge numbers in all types of elections, particularly national. They aren't going to let their representatives take SS away.



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I'm in one of the few states that have a constitutionally mandated balanced budget. By something I don't believe to be coincidence, it is also consistently ranked as a best-managed state by many organizations (such as the The Pew Charitable Trusts and others). Over the past two decades it has been interesting to compare the short-sightedness and petty bickering at the federal level against the longer-term discussion and also petty bickering at our state level. The budget is perhaps the most interesting point in the discussions.


I also live in a state with a constitutionally mandated balanced budget. And our outgoing governer (a hardcore Neo-Con, I might add) has left us in a terrible situation. He underfunded programs for almost a decade, refused to raise taxes (although property taxes rose almost everywhere in the state to offset this), and used shifty accounting gimmicks to leave us with a $6.4 billion dollar deficit over the next biennium. A balanced budget is extremely useful, but is anything but a failsafe.


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You can't blame any political party or the other for the federal government's lack of financial responsibility. There are more than two centuries of history showing that all political parties will gladly extend the public debt rather than give up their own federally-funded programs.

I heard a radio ad (on the east coast) begging people come to the federally-funded school breakfast and school dinner programs citing that they need enough people so it stays free. I was dumbfounded that first such a program would exist, "free" breakfasts and dinners for anybody who wants it, not just those with financial need; and second, that public funds would ever be considered "free". Public monies are not free, but they are treated as such by so many people. Fix that, and it would go a long way in fixing public debt.

It is painful, and that is why politicians take great lengths to avoid it.


Agreed, both that no political party has shown any will to be fiscally responsible, and that doing so would be painful. The example you cite is a situation that should not be. But would you trade sufficient nutrition in disadvantaged children (the intended recipients of the program) to finance huge tax cuts, with the vast majority of recipients being extremely wealthy already? There's a lot of discussion to be had about this, which may be better parceled out in more posts (this one already is pretty long). But society has an interest in making social investments where individuals may not, and targeting specific investments makes more sense to me than riding an outlier or trumped-up example (ACORN?) to arrange legislation to continue increasing the already record-high income inequality in the nation.

EDIT: Fixed quote issues.

-------R.I.P.-------

Selective Quote

~Too Late - Too Soon~

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Original post by BronzeBeard
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Original post by LessBread
The flat tax is a joke.

Who said anything about the flat tax, read the site before making assumptions.


The so called fair tax is the bastard cousin of the flat tax. The same people who used to push the flat tax now push the so called fair tax. I guess they realized just how unpopular the flat tax was... At any rate, a 30% sales tax is not a fair tax at all. It's a highly regressive tax that would compel poor people to subsidize rich people even more than they already do. It seems these days all that's needed to convince some people that something is good is to give it a name that makes it sound good. Try out this new rat poison. It's called candy...
"I thought what I'd do was, I'd pretend I was one of those deaf-mutes." - the Laughing Man
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Original post by Alpha_ProgDes
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Original post by LessBread
The flat tax is a joke.




I agree that the SS payroll tax cut is the slippery slope to the end of SS.

Have you seen this?


I'm not even sure what "this" is telling me?


Note how the widths of the various components change over time. Note the overall drop off as the chart approaches the present. The choice of presenting the figures as a percentage of GDP acts as a kind of normalization.
"I thought what I'd do was, I'd pretend I was one of those deaf-mutes." - the Laughing Man

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