I am currently in the process of making the business plan for an massive single player online game. I have difficulty finding sources to make predictions for the number of players that the game will have in one to five years and, since its a microtransaction game, what will be the ARPU in the first year up to the fifth year. The game does not belong to any already known genre. It combines a certain theme with a "manager"-game genre. Can you suggest any ways or sources to do a prediction? Thank you in advance GamerGamer

Depends on how fun the game is... How many reviewers start raving about it after playing it... How much marketing money is thrown behind promoting it... How saturated the market is with similar games... etc.

Where can I find such data from already launched/published games? Is there any website?

Check http://www.igda.org/games-game-march-2007
and http://archives.igda.org/faq.php#biz01

Thank you