Quote: Original post by Dmytry
The real story should be sad state of elementary math education, when people whom are supposed to know better start to speculate like this based on 11 cases.

Right.
11 cases -it's not a Gauss distribution at all,it's still Puasson.Mexico cases and probability 7% was calculated relatively representable (Gauss) statistic.
Btw,about education: you must not mutliply 0.07*11 to calculate probability,because in reality this number may be from 2 to 20. ( it's just a coarse estimate : 11 -/+ 3*sqrt(11), 95% probability range )

Quote: Original post by Sirisian
The people in the US seem to have an immunity to it. The people in new york and other areas seem to be recovering and it's not life threatening. I just watched a news special on it.

Well- this information is not on CNN. In fact, the virus seems to mutate quickly.
From CNN article:

Quote:

Swine flu is a contagious respiratory disease that usually affects pigs. It is caused by a type-A influenza virus. The current strain is a new variation of an H1N1 virus, which is a mix of human and animal versions. iReport.com: Do you think we should be worried about swine flu?

When the flu spreads person-to-person, instead of from animals to humans, it can continue to mutate, making it harder to treat or fight off because people have no natural immunity

And, rather worrying:

Quote:
"What's counterintuitive with this particular virus, it's in the people who have robust immune systems. As their body starts to respond, to try and fight off that virus, they produce tons of inflammatory cells. Those inflammatory cells can sort of flood the lungs.

Quote:
Why is the death toll for Mexicans so much higher than Americans from this virus thus far?

My guess is diet. My guess is that Mexicans are slightly more likely to be malnourished than Americans on average, and are therefore more apt to suffer from the infection.

For this reason, I'm also guessing that this pandemic (if there is one) will be no where near as bad for those of us in the West as the one that hit in 1918 - for the simple reason that we're all much better fed than we were 90 years ago.

This isn't to say there aren't diseases that we *should* be worried about. I just think that this isn't one of them.

Quote: Original post by Marmin

And, rather worrying:

Quote:
"What's counterintuitive with this particular virus, it's in the people who have robust immune systems. As their body starts to respond, to try and fight off that virus, they produce tons of inflammatory cells. Those inflammatory cells can sort of flood the lungs.

What is a 'sort of' flooding of the lungs? Sounds like a 5th grader wrote that.

Quote: Original post by curtmax_0

Quote: Original post by Marmin

And, rather worrying:

Quote:
"What's counterintuitive with this particular virus, it's in the people who have robust immune systems. As their body starts to respond, to try and fight off that virus, they produce tons of inflammatory cells. Those inflammatory cells can sort of flood the lungs.

What is a 'sort of' flooding of the lungs? Sounds like a 5th grader wrote that.

Judging by the phrasing, I'd say the author was sort of using a form of humor known as "understatement".

Quote: Original post by Codeka
In the United States alone, 36,000 people die from the influenza virus every year.

Sure, it's mostly the very young and the very old, and these cases in Mexico are reportedly "healthy" people 25-40, but still, 150-odd deaths is nothing when you think that there are approximately 4 flu-related deaths every hour in the U.S. normally...

The fact that it affects young healthy people in their prime is more than a "Sure, but" kind of thing. Let's compare with the 1918 flu epidemic:

Quote:
The 1918 flu pandemic (commonly referred to as the Spanish flu) was an influenza pandemic that spread to nearly every part of the world. It was caused by an unusually virulent and deadly Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1. Historical and epidemiological data are inadequate to identify the geographic origin of the virus.[1] Most of its victims were healthy young adults, in contrast to most influenza outbreaks which predominantly affect juvenile, elderly, or otherwise weakened patients.

Quote: Original post by Krokhin

Quote: Original post by Dmytry
The real story should be sad state of elementary math education, when people whom are supposed to know better start to speculate like this based on 11 cases.

Right.
11 cases -it's not a Gauss distribution at all,it's still Puasson.Mexico cases and probability 7% was calculated relatively representable (Gauss) statistic.
Btw,about education: you must not mutliply 0.07*11 to calculate probability,because in reality this number may be from 2 to 20. ( it's just a coarse estimate : 11 -/+ 3*sqrt(11), 95% probability range )

Well, its good enough coarse estimate, given that we don't even know how likely numbers are to be over or under reported, etc.

Quote: Original post by polly
My guess is diet. My guess is that Mexicans are slightly more likely to be malnourished than Americans on average, and are therefore more apt to suffer from the infection.
For this reason, I'm also guessing that this pandemic (if there is one) will be no where near as bad for those of us in the West as the one that hit in 1918 - for the simple reason that we're all much better fed than we were 90 years ago.
This isn't to say there aren't diseases that we *should* be worried about. I just think that this isn't one of them.

I'm recalling now sir Winston Churchill's toast: " On Titanic's board were a lot of people,and a lot of them had a good health,money and were happy.But they had not one simple thing- the luck.That's why we must wish somebody luck first..."

Quote: Original post by Krokhin

Quote: Original post by LessBread
Not much there about pork as a vector.

Pork just don't care in this case,it's too late.I just want to say that our country oficially has begun the full scale prepation to pandemia. They say that flu will come in Russia in the middle of May.

My guess is that banning pork operates as a propaganda vector. The ban brings the news of the flu home to the kitchen in a way that impacts everyone. There's no escaping the warnings.

Not surprisingly, the USDA is putting out counter-propaganda: Amid flu fears, USDA says pork is safe to eat

Quote:
Fear of swine flu is a good reason to wash your hands, but not to take pork off the menu.

Federal health officials say the virus that has triggered fears of a flu pandemic is not transmitted by food, and that all food-borne germs are killed when pork is cooked to the recommended internal temperature of 160 F.

There also is no evidence so far that American pigs are infected with the virus, or that people can become infected by touching uncooked pork, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Monday.
...

Quote: Original post by Oberon_Command

Quote: Original post by curtmax_0

Quote: Original post by Marmin

And, rather worrying:

Quote:
"What's counterintuitive with this particular virus, it's in the people who have robust immune systems. As their body starts to respond, to try and fight off that virus, they produce tons of inflammatory cells. Those inflammatory cells can sort of flood the lungs.

What is a 'sort of' flooding of the lungs? Sounds like a 5th grader wrote that.

Judging by the phrasing, I'd say the author was sort of using a form of humor known as "understatement".

I think he would not scare the readers too much.