Hello, For quite a long time It has interested me what do PROGRAMMERS think of different 3D applications CODE WISE. I know both max and maya on quite a good level and no this is not another of those topics where people will post - choose Maya if you want to do this, max that, xsi is good and lw is cheap. Save it please. There are actually 2 reasons that lead me to posting: * Firstly 3ds max is limited to windows and seeing aspects as accelerating growth of open source software, particularly linux, it would be nice not to be as dependant on platform. Here's where maya comes in with powerful MEL, but its all from perfect (mainly pointing my finger at the price tag). * The other reason is OPEN SOURCE SOFTWARE. We probably all laughed at blender a few years ago, but seeing it emerging and already adapting most of the advanced features of nowadays 3d giant applications, growth is inevitable. Other than Blender being open source, its scripting is also Python based as much as I understand. In theory parallels of functionality could be drawn with MEL - please correct me if I am wrong. In max, the MAXscript is more of like an addon that accesses to hidden functions of max and it's doing a good job + also very easy to use, but it has its limits and does not really let you touch to its core. Maya however is mostly build on MEL and it can be considered its core. Here is where I am wondering of BLENDER, how to look at it and phyton? So the question really is about the future-proof'ness of those softwares and even more ADAPTATION to open source such as blender itself as time goes by. At the moment, it's raw, but even now movies are made, its also widely loved and adapted by indie game devs and what is even more surprising is that you really start seeing studios hiring people in that field! Most of you could probably tell that yes max and maya will perhaps stay for at least another 10 years. But I would really like to hear is whether we can expect a surprising outcome of open source software such as blender starting to chew in more and more of the market share. Perhaps one day dominating the market (open source, not belnder in particular). I personally think that since people choose their careers and specializations somewhere in teens - the youth, I do not see most students being able to afford the costy education as well as the packages themselves. Even more considering the fact that you can not really master it within a year so buying a 6000$ software and in 2 days saying "i changed my mind, too complex", would look terribly off. So the same youth = professionals of tomorrow? Other than that for me personally an intriguing question is the NEXT GEN OPERATING SYSTEMS. Vista seems to be a powerful giant able to emulate most* previous windows releases, but they say it will be the last of its kind some predicting absolutely new approaches and several operating systems running simultaneously etc...Where does it put windows dependent packages like max? Can we really expect next release of windows taking up all the space of HD DVDs and repeating the same emulations process with VISTA added to the list(insightful thoughts)...I am not too educated from this aspect but would be very nice to hear some professional minds sharing their thoughts. Thank you!

Until software piracy is extinct, open-source software will never take over. It is my conviction that the large companies (ie, Autodesk and Adobe) have a vested interest in keeping a controlled level of piracy. This makes sure each new generation, as you've said, grows up using their tools. Obstensibly this is why they have their free versions (GMax and Maya PLE and XSI Mod Tool), but they are far less popular than cracked software.

As long as the grassroots is using a software, I think that is what will be used in the mainstream. While its not difficult to switch softwares, things like pipelines and programmers do become hard to switch.

Additionally, open-source software does not provide the dedicated support to your team, and additionally, 3rd party tools developers, that paid programs provide. Finally, paid software is more likely to have regular releases, 'real life' does not get in the way of work... you cannot really count on open source as you can on paid software.