I think the current model is not going to succeed; in fact, I think it's set up currently so that it can't possibly succeed. Basically, the entire business design for MMO's is "monthly subscription". That's the only way an MMO in the classic sense is sustainable, and the only reason so many companies are trying to jump on the bandwagon. (Guild Wars is a counterexample but that is a special case design, not really MMO, that I won't digress into.) However, almost all users are going to be somewhat stingy with monthly fees. People will pay $15 a month for WoW. But will they simultaneously pay another $15 for EQ2? A few might. What about yet another $15 for the next game? And then $20 for the next? I really doubt it. People will gladly buy multiple normal games and play them all, but people are not going to buy 8 or 9 MMO's with their ever-increasing monthly fees and play them all at the same time. I'd say the huge majority will only ever play ONE mmo at a time, because that's all they're willing to spend. And right now, for a lot of people, that one is WoW. The only way you're going to get someone to like your MMO is to convince them to quit WoW and switch over. This is Bad for Business. It creates an unsustainable competition, where only one game can be "number one", and forces gaming companies to invest millions to try and destroy eachother's market shares; something that generally leads to the awful truth that is Consolidation; there will, in time, be two or three gigantic monolithic "MMO Corporations", kind of how right now there are only two or three giant console manufacturers or OS vendors. Each of these will have one or two MMO's at a time, because they won't want to "cannibalize" their own current games (see the continual failures and shutdowns of Ultima Online 2).

I don't think most marketeers realize any of this yet. They're still slavering over the very idea of monthly fees, but more and more a lot of MMO's have shut down as they realize that it's not the incredible cash machine they thought it was. The only way I see MMO's flourishing is if they can make it so that people could reasonably play as many MMO's at once as they can currently play normal games at once. And that means free, or much cheaper, monthly fees.

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Original post by makeshiftwings I don't think most marketeers realize any of this yet. They're still slavering over the very idea of monthly fees, but more and more a lot of MMO's have shut down as they realize that it's not the incredible cash machine they thought it was. The only way I see MMO's flourishing is if they can make it so that people could reasonably play as many MMO's at once as they can currently play normal games at once. And that means free, or much cheaper, monthly fees.

Technically it's not a MMO - but I think marketers should take a look at at South Korea's Kart Rider. It has no monthly fees and a basic account is free, but given that the game is pretty much exclusive to South Korea, it's pretty amazing that it has over 10 million members. I think it's entirely possible to create a business model around only one game.

[Edited by - Will F on March 2, 2006 6:24:10 AM]

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Original post by Xelen I don't really see RTS having any reason/advantage to go MMO style

I dunno, I think a very large persistant world would work wonders as an RTS, however it would require a certain degree of team work and alliance building, however if my experiances with Eve are anything to go by that shouldnt be a huge problem (many many people there naturally allied themselves into groups to push the story line).

FEH.

Yes, feh. Right down the middle. Some games will MMO, and some people will play them, and some will not.

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Are Massive Multi-Player Online Games the thing, i mean if you could take your favorite single player game, what ever that might be, and make it an MMO would you play it?

No way in hell.

After recently spending a lot of time on MMORPGs, Civilization IV is a breath of fresh air. In fact, I love the game so much I don't forsee wasting any more of my money on MMOs. There's a beauty to be found in playing single-player games.

Both, they are the "future" in that they create an all new environment for players to play in. Single player games will stay, but MMO's are already growing into a huge genre.

A fad, in that they are so over-done right now, everyone wants to "make their own MMO", and this will die down so that there will be a few big ones and a few little ones and everyone else will still be making other games.

Well, there's the doomsday MMO metaverse theory, amusingly summed up by David Wong in this article, and there's the "fizzle" theory, which shouldn't require any explanation.

I think we'll get a widespread, muted form of the MMO. It'll become common technology, and a few big services will spring up (Google, perhaps Sprint) that offer the servers and support for a broad array of shared online presences (SOPs). Everything from teleconferencing to online shopping with friends to multimedia news and commercial presentations to grinding the Molten Core will be handled via the SOP servers.

Instead of going to the mall, you'll log onto the web and download the new storefronts and areas that have been implemented, meet up with friends and exchange chit-chat while discussing different sources for good deals or fun little games that you can play together or alone. It'll be like IM, cell phones, shopping and hanging out all rolled into one mass-marketed service, probably with some kind of avatar system so you can do these things as Awesome You.

I'm thinking we'll see more games with an MMO component that are mainly based offline. Even today many people don't have high speed internet access, especially on thier gaming consoles. Companies are going to be producing MMO-based games as well as traditional games for this reason. (and the fact that there's always that jerk who plays 20000 hours a weak and hacks the game to keep it from being any fun for everyone else)

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Original post by Will F Quote: Original post by lightblade Ok, that is +720 million -??? server maintenence fee -??? server hardware upgrade -??? costumer support -??? initial development cost -??? expansion development -??? advertisements add all that up...you decide I've read that the development costs of WoW was between $40-60 million. Subtract the other costs, and i'm sure they're still making a tidy profit - and the $720 million a year I estimated was based on a $10 a month subscription fee, I wouldn't be suprised to find out they're making more per month. Quote: and...MMO is definitely a fad, with all the MMO addiction cases around, government will will step in and regulate it. By then, it will fade. The Chinese are already doing so [wink]

WoW costs 15 a month and used to cost 50 dollars for the game. Add that into your equation and that equals a lot more profit

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I don't think most marketeers realize any of this yet. They're still slavering over the very idea of monthly fees, but more and more a lot of MMO's have shut down as they realize that it's not the incredible cash machine they thought it was. The only way I see MMO's flourishing is if they can make it so that people could reasonably play as many MMO's at once as they can currently play normal games at once. And that means free, or much cheaper, monthly fees.

There are a few examples of sustainable economic models outside of monthly fee's, like Secondlife, Runescape, Puzzle Pirates. Accessing and playing their MMO's is free or with a one time initial charge, but is limited in scope, so if the players want to become more involved in the MMO they can pay for perks, or pay a monthly fee in order to have access to greater content.

Now do i think MMO's are the future of gaming? Well i don't think they'll die anytime soon, and there's a fair chance they'll survive for the long haul. I think would be cool though if they eventually went past gaming and replace the "Web" as we know it, becoming something like the 3d Environment from Johnny Mnemonic. There were BBS's, IRC channels, Webpages, etc. A large central interconnected 3D environment where people create personal spaces and avatars could be an interesting next step for the net.