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There are some very odd people in the world, and some of them are in power - it is not hard to imagine some countries launching a nuclear strike not for personal gain, but out of an incomprehensible desire to destroy something. Some form of genocide, for example. I am neither including nor excluding the US in or from the above statement. I do, however, find it very hard to imagine anyone getting invaded on the grounds that they no longer have nukes... the only thing having nukes deters is other people firing nukes...

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IMO, no effect. How many times has a nuclear weapon been used in a hostile situation? Again, IMO, nuclear weapons don't count for anything. The establishment of NATO, UN, etc, helps see to that. People won't feel safer because biological/chemical weapons can pose a large threat and are still around. I doubt the political scene would change. Why would it? No one's going to suddenly attack a country just because it doesn't have nuclear weapons any more, are they?

That's what I'm wondering. I doubt that huge conventional wars will immediately break out, but I do think that it will change the dynamics between various nations greatly.

Already, the conventional alliances like NATO are undergoing quite a bit of stress. There are numerous peripheral issues that could be pushed over if a factor as large as nuclear arms is suddenly eliminated.

I am trying to think of a plausible outcome for such an event.

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You'd need more specifics for a more detailed scenario. Do you agree that nations act in their best interest and that there is a fuel shortage coming? If so, this is going to push nations like China to flex their power against American economic dominion. You could get a return of southeast asian conflic with China as a principle player securing fuel rights.

The time at which this game takes place, is at the point when this new technology (I'm leaning towards it being some sort of forcefield) is just starting to become widespread and prevalent. The governments of the world are in the midst of getting adjusted to this. Sort of a near-future setting like Minority Report or I, Robot.