3 minutes ago, frob said:
That isn't what he wrote.
Lack of money causes layoffs and companies collapsing. Companies require revenue to pay the staff, and salary is by far the greatest expense.
Are you really implying he brought that point up and it has nothing to do with the discussion at hand, that it isn't referencing that piracy causes these companies to lose enough money to lose people their jobs? Why even mention it then?
5 minutes ago, frob said:
Of course it is more complex than that. And you won't see the data unless you're in a position within the business where that is part of your job.
The companies have ENORMOUS troves of data. It is you who is naive if you think the largest publishers of TenCent, Activision-Blizzard, and EA don't have an extremely accurate image of global and regional player behavior. In addition to games and game tool metrics, they've got data from data brokers, from ad networks, from retail channels, from distribution channels, from companies like Facebook and Twitter and Twitch. They've got data not just about their own games and products and ad channels, but data about the broader industry and about other industries as well.
I never said they didn't have enormous troves of data, I said we have differing opinions on if they are examining the data and correctly inferring the effect piracy has on their profits. You also essentially make my point for me, that information is closely guarded and unless you work at one of those offices doing work that is decidedly not game development, you'll never have any kind of proof. I don't pretend I have access to that data, if someone here has access to that data I would question why they do and they most certainly would not be allowed to share it.
So what that boils down to is that we are arguing two sides here, I'm assuming companies are making incorrect decisions, or they are making correct decisions in terms of profitability but are harming their users in order to get it. Whereas the other side seems to be implying that because these companies make these decisions, that it must be the right choice, it must be accepted and it is the logical solution to follow. I made a plain statement that I do NOT support these practices, even if people's jobs are involved. It should be very obvious to not support that viewpoint means you either side with the opposite viewpoint, or are at best, complacent to it.
10 minutes ago, frob said:
As Steam and online servers have been mentioned, even those aren't guaranteed. I've got co-workers who were at a small company. After a great advertising campaign they launched a popular game. They had their servers set up, Steam authentication and servers to help protect against piracy. They invested everything they had into the business to build a success. They watched the telemetry. In the first day they had nearly a hundred thousand unique players. At the end of the first day, Steam reported only 23 sales. The company thought it was odd, but perhaps the data was slow to sync or needed to wait for transactions to clear. At the end of the first week, and after reporting a quarter million seemingly-validated Steam accounts there were less than 200 paying customers according to Valve. They reconciled the data with Valve and with IP address mapping tools. Valve reported an enormous number of the accounts were fraudulent but valid when authenticated, paid with stolen credit cards which were later revoked without payment or otherwise troublesome; not just in the US but particularly through Asia and Eastern Europe.
Is that really just piracy though? I would say that more seems like an overarching problem of people obtaining software like games through fraud, that also seems far outside the norm of how piracy distribution usually works, for single player games in particular they tend to completely avoid interfacing with steam so they shouldn't even have any telemetry for those cases, for games that are mostly multiplayer its a whole other can of worms with people either connecting to real servers through fraudulent accounts or even running third party servers that avoid steam altogether. It's a complex issue.
15 minutes ago, frob said:
Of course it is possible that Valve was the one committing fraud, but given known piracy rates and the IP addresses of players the claim was realistic. The company was out of business when they realized they could not pay their workers and they had crushing debt, even though the servers were saturated with several hundred thousand players. Obviously not everyone would have purchased the game, but if even half of them paid the company would have seen a 20x profit rather than collapse. They are real people I personally who lost their jobs and suffered lost/missing paychecks because of piracy.
On the titles I've worked with where we had firm telemetry data, every one of them showed >95% piracy rates. Most had enormous player bases in countries where we not only didn't launch the game, but we also never translated it in their languages where rates asymptotically approached 100% piracy. Even in our target countries the highest paying rates were still over 80% pirated versions.
Yes but the question isn't really "is there a lot of piracy" the question is "does DRM fix the problem?" Those statistics are pretty horrifying but also not that surprising, I'd wager a lot of sources of piracy come out of countries that have little or no chance of legal prosecution against people for the activities like China or smaller European countries. Would DRM have really fixed that issues though?
There's many variables in that scenario:
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How many people that pirated would have actually bought the game in an ideal scenario?
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How many of those accounts were even from piracy and not alternative illegal methods like credit card fraud?
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How much piracy would DRM cut down on?
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How much would the DRM cost relative to how much is earned back?
That's just a few of the issues, and they aren't solved simply with telemetry data. Whether you meant to or not you are also displaying exactly the kind of statistics I often see people show as why piracy is harming the industry while it not actually correlating to potential sales and revenue compared to costs.