I don't want the player to feel competent and fearless, I want them to mess up badly and recover from the worst situation. I believe they will enjoy beating the odds stack against them and I also believe the characters should have abilities that reflect their desire to overcome
It makes me think a bit about the tension I feel playing a VLT. In the background is some random number generator that is going to decide whether I win or loose. I don't see the "dice roll", just the outcome of either having won or (more likely) lost my money. But I think part of what makes the tension rewarding is that I feel as though I have some kind of control when I'm pushing my luck. I can take my time deciding whether to push the button to start the next round or increase or decrease my bet. So, I believe, that you'll want to provide the player that sense of control in some way.
Aside from that, I'd recommend that you do some kind of prototype or graphing of the formula you're planning on using so you can see just how often the player will survive. Then you'll know whether you're on the right path or not.