… they also never had a plan for success, so they don't really count.
Mind elaborating on this part? It doesn't have to be frob long, just a sentence or two would probably suffice.
I'll give you my plan. I started looking at games and what was selling when I came across a few 'old school' jRPG style games on Big Fish Games. They were getting good reviews, and seemed to be selling, so I looked into what they were made with. It wasn't an engine I would have considered at first (no source code access for one thing), but it had one good thing going for it: I knew that people were buying games made with it (good games made with it - I never had any illusions or delusions about that part).
I got the program, started working on it, found some of those developers active in the community, had some conversaions with them and what they did and how they went about it, and learned a lot about how that 'niche' in the game market works: how large the potential customer pool is, what the costs associated with promoting it are, how much can I expect to make per unit sold through various portals (and whether or not direct is a viable option - and the costs associated with that). I adjusted my plans a bit and kept working on my project. There have been a few changes in the market landscape since I started: Steam Greenlight being the most important positive, BFG apparently not all that interested in RPG's anymore being the most important negative.
I'm still working, and plan on a commercial release: Take the money from that, and either make another game in the same niche or use the money to 'upgrade' to a higher level engine and shift to a broader market (with the more competition that goes with that)..I won't be able to make that call until I release and see what the market landscape looks like at that point. Points in my favor are I know how to code, so switching languages isn't a huge impediment, and the genre of game I'm working on (RPG) isn't as engine-dependant as some others (FPS, for example). It's story and character development over anything,and all of that is worked out with pencil and paper.
I've set a playable demo deadline for the end of this month, about four to five hours of gameplay. Once that's done and I get tester feedback, I can adjust the rest of my production outline and set firmer dates for those. If you're not setting serious deadlines for yourself, your odds of finishing at all are greatly diminished, and the quality will be lower - that may sound ironic but deadlines force you to focus on what's important, rather than drifting along adding features for the sake of features and never cutting down to the 'core' of your game.
The ones that don't plan simply decide one day they're going to make a game (probably the 'next big' MMO or something equally grandiose), find/buy a game engine/tookit. and start building. If they ever finish the game, they don't have any idea how or where to market it, whether or not that type of game even sells, who buys it, how much they pay for it, who the competition in that marketspace is, etc...