For those of you who haven’t kept up, south-southeast of Japan’s mainland are the Senkuku Islands, controlled by Japan in the East China Sea.

The United States administered them as part of the United States Civil Administration of the Ryukyu Islands from 1945 until 1972, when the islands reverted to Japanese control under the Okinawa Reversion Treaty between the United States and Japan.

China claimed discovery and claim over them from the 14th century, but due too their poor book-keeping their claims aren’t verifiable especially since there are old Chinese maps that specifically refer to them by their Japanese name and list them as being Japanese territory. When China was questioned multiple times about who owned the islands in 1971 they refused to reply and said they would talk about it later.

Oil and other natural resources were discovered under the islands and suddenly China decided to claim the islands. Unfortunately international law makes it very clear that there is no dispute. Japan has owned the islands since January 14, 1895, after acquiring them by due international-law process (occupation of terra nullius), and the U.S. government has made it clear that the Senkaku Islands have been under the administration of the Government of Japan since their reversion to Japan as part of the Okinawa reversion in 1972 and that the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands.

A few months ago Japan bought back back islands from their private owners, who were Japanese as well. Suddenly China remembered the islands and their resources and got angry.

That is the backdrop prior to what I want to actually post.

More information: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands

Q&A on the Senkaku Islands

Since then China has been belligerently poking its nose where it does not belong, sending airplanes to the islands to provoke the military in Japan (who typically scramble fighter jets as a fair warning not to violate Japanese airspace), hitting the navy in Japan with radar that can be used to lock weapons, and recently deploying DF-16 missiles whose main purpose is to defeat U.S.-made Patriot missile batteries near those islands. This as well as heightening their military exercises.

1. Do you think war will break out?
2. Who do you think would win?
3. America is required to join the fight and would, but the islands are covered by international law, so this would be seen by the world as an attack specifically by China to steal something that does not belong to it. Do you think other countries would join the fight?
   1. Which side would they chose?
      1. Could North Korea’s alliance with China be used to gain an excuse to attack America or its ally Japan (in the case of an existing war in which North Korea proclaims it wishes to support its ally, China)?

I have my answers but I don’t want to tint anything.

What are your thoughts first?

L. Spiro

And this is how the end of world starts.

My thoughts are there are 0 chances this would escalate to an international war, there is money to be made, but it's fairly insignificant in face of the cost (even the strict economical cost) of a war between 2 major power, both of them using and not wanting cut of from international trade and being at peace with well, pretty much the whole world.

It would make 0 sense for either party for it to escalate, at worse it may cause a larger political incident with one side backing down and saying sorry.

Reading the wiki page on the dispute I would say that China might well have a point (and given many counter points to it are referencing things AFTER they ceded the islands to Japan isn't, imo, a strong defence of Japanese post WW2 claims) however it basically breaks down to a lot of 'he said, she said' which is annoying. While the claims regarding the islands from China might well have come AFTER the potential for oil/gas was found it could be argued that due to the US not handing them back until a few years after they had no chance to claim them (and indeed the protest being made after the handback would imply they expected to get the islands).

As to if they would go into a shooting war... unlikely. If a war did start I suspect it would be down to them being put in a position where they could claim they were just defending themselves ('our aircraft was slightly off course, it was shot down without warning').

It is not economically sensible for them to start a shooting war; more importantly if they DID then as a very large holder of US debt I'm not sure the US could afford to enter it. Between debt and being tired of war in general I suspect they are going to have a hard time selling a war over a few unimportant Japanese islands to US citizens in general.

If the US did get involved then the UK might get pulled a long for the ride, however if we are smart then we'd do so only if the US and Japan backed our claims to the Falkland Islands in a public way to get Argentina to STFU about it again.
(While it might seem odd that I'm saying the Chinese might have a case where as the Falklands are 'ours' the respective histories of the two areas are significantly different enough so as not to arrive at the same conclusion.)

If a shooting war DID begin... that's a hard one... Chinese military tech isn't up to the US/UK/EU standard as yet but its getting there. They have a large standing army and are unlikely to have the same population problems that the other powers might well have. They area also not broke. I suspect it would end in a draw; China are unlikely to be defeated that's for sure but I don't think the USA can 'win' in any meaningful way.

Local faction wise I doubt anyone else would get involved; NK might use it as an excuse to make a play for SK I guess but that would be a whole other mess.

However my original point stands; it makes no sense for China to enter into a shooting war when its economic power is that much more dangerous.

Do you think war will break out?

No, not over this.

Who do you think would win?

The likely result would be a brief period of traditional combat. Not long in: "Let's just use a tactical nuke in this strategic location..." followed by a chain of escalating nuclear strikes in which there was no "winner".

Could North Korea’s alliance with China be used to gain an excuse to attack America or its ally Japan?

Are you asking if North Korea would start a war on behalf of China? Why would North Korea want to start a war where they gain nothing and they cannot hope to win?

While Most of your responses focus on a plausible military conflict and whom it may involve, do not over look the US's weaken economic state, which continues to get worse under the current administartion and the bafoon in charge. The U.S. owes China to much money, and would rely on continued load, ( like the rest of the world), in order to fund a military conflict. So a military conflict with U.S involvement is highly unlikely. How does this differ from above comments ?

China is well aware of the US's state of affairs, Historically, China and Japan have been at odds for centuries, so if Japan continues to resist, China continues to push, US continues to fall deeper into debt. China may esculate militarily with Japan and they will be on their own as the US and the westeren alliances will be to weak financially to get involved.

Unless the US can reverse its current direction of self loathing and destruction, the weakest around the globe shall fall prey to those who want to rule the world. Like it or not, the US has been the only country willing to step in in protection of the weaker. China at 1 time was that weaker in WWII against Japan. Who will come to the aid of the US in the future ?

I have my answers but I don’t want to tint anything.

L. Spiro

I think you already "tinted" a lot with your description of what is happening imo.

Are you asking if North Korea would start a war on behalf of China? Why would North Korea want to start a war where they gain nothing and they cannot hope to win?

If anything the more likely conflict in that area is going to be when China finally has enough of NK pulling all kinds of shit and does something about it.

The China-NK relationship has become more and more strained as late; after the last weapons test it was clear that China are starting to get a little annoyed at them...

1. A shooting war would be a disaster for China, the party I consider more likely to initiate one (though I think this is still very unlikely). Even if they won, they would have a string of islands that aren't that valuable while simultaneously justifying the worst fears about China in the international community. There might be a great deal of economic or political maneuvering over it, which could still be considered "war", but not a military conflict in the sense most people would think of it.

2. Impossible to say, particularly because "victory" doesn't have a lot of context. Who would force the other side to unconditional surrender? No one. Who would ultimately claim to the islands? Depends on how much the conflict escalated, who else got involved, etc. Same kind of considerations go for long term consequences for all parties involved.

3. Maybe. I would imagine most other countries would just be jockeying for favor with the side they think would win. As for US involvement, that doesn't necessarily include deployment of soldiers or war materiel. US logistical support and ability to establish superiority in specific ocean regions would have a huge impact on any fighting.

1 Jr.: See above

1 Jr. Jr.: I have a hard time believing it. NK already doesn't need an excuse to do much of anything, they just do stuff and negative consequences don't make much official bother. And any hostile action against anyone would only serve to make them even less popular with other nations than they are now. An aggressive NK would probably not be able to continue their military development with impunity if the world observes them actually deploying it.

Are you asking if North Korea would start a war on behalf of China? Why would North Korea want to start a war where they gain nothing and they cannot hope to win?

No, I am suggesting the possibility of a war already being there and North Korea saying, “Hey China friend, we will back you in this war (so that we can attack America and Japan).”

While Most of your responses focus on a plausible military conflict and whom it may involve, do not over look the US's weaken economic state

I didn’t, which forms the basis of my hypotheses in case of war.
Firstly America can’t afford it, but there is no question as to their obligation to support Japan in this matter should it result in war.
They lose financially if they fight China. They lose relationships with Japan if they don’t back them militarily (as well as losing strategic military locations).

Solution: Enter the war, feign a loss.
America definitely will enter a war if there is one. But the way they aren’t fortifying their defenses right now while they know fully well that China is fortifying their attack in preparation of war [Beijing War Prep] likely doesn’t indicate that they see peace coming, but that they have calculated that the only way to win is to keep relations with Japan and enter the war but not to spend any money on it what-so-ever (beyond the bare minimum), put up the minimum resistance necessary to tell Japan they tried, and ultimately lose on purpose.

That is my main answer.

The China-NK relationship has become more and more strained as late; after the last weapons test it was clear that China are starting to get a little annoyed at them...

I wanted to start another topic or at least about that here too.
The other war-like issue for Japan is North Korea itself period.

They have ignored all warnings from all nations regarding nuclear tests and have stated clearly their desire to continue ignoring them and to eventually attack America. And now they are run by a hothead naïve little kid who is desperate to cast a bigger shadow than his father.

1. Do you think North Korea will start a war?
2. North Korea can’t hit many major cities in America and certainly not accurately. Will they try to start the war by attacking America’s ally?
   1. Which city would they hit? Tokyo? Seoul?
3. Once North Korea is wiped off the map, how well do you think the North, being almost entirely military and brainwashed citizens, will integrate with the South back into “Korea”?

L. Spiro