After the recent little Ray Kurzweil debacle, I've been thinking about what I personally think the future might hold. Obviously, predicting this kind of stuff is challenging. So why not just limit it more, and talk specifically about gaming? Particularly, what do you think the gaming world is going to look like in, say, 2017? My predictions are below, but I'd rather you post yours than read and respond to mine, if anything.


My predictions:

Consoles:

• Ouya will launch in 2013 and make virtually no impact. Its game line-up will be a list of unappealing ports. Worse, only two months later Microsoft and Sony will steal all attention by announcing their new consoles at E3.
  
  
  
  • Both consoles will better support streaming of games, and Sony's console will allow any publisher--at their own discretion--to lock discs in a way that prevents them from being resold. Microsoft's console will come equipped by default with an improved kinect, or kinect-like device, and its marketing will be mainly directed at casuals.
    
    
    
    • Microsoft's new console will have a seemingly rushed launch to meet Holiday Season 2013, and Sony will promise a Q1 2014 release, although it may possibly be pushed by then.
      
      
      
      • In summer 2013, Valve finally starts talking in more detail about their steam console, although we have no known release date. Throughout the summer it will release more details and information, gauging excitement. Valve avoided E3 because they saw the console announcements coming.
        
        
        
        • Valve's steam box launches Summer 2014 alongside some new Half Life content, and a new IP
          
          
          
          • These 3, with the Wii U, will be the home console options through to 2020.
            
            
            PC:
            
            
            • Windows 8's app store will aggressively force top-tier developers to release on that platform as well as Steam. Steam is not going to touch Windows 8 with a 10-foot pole, although Users can still download Windows 7 steam on the Windows 7 desktop in Windows 8 (confusing, slightly, but this is how it is for now).
              
              
              
              • Steam will try to slowly shift its weight onto Linux, the Mac and its new home console, but none of these paths will succeed. Most hardcore gamers are more likely to switch from Windows 7 to 8 than 7 to Linux. Many Linux distros aren't very well supported by the very expensive hardware these gamers have spent hundreds on (see: Gigabyte mobos), and Steam will always be available for them on Windows 7 (along with other game distribution platforms like gog, desura).
                
                
                
                • Windows 9 will launch in 2015, backwards compatible with Windows 8 but not at all compatible with Windows 7 or prior. You won't be able to access apps except through the Windows 9/8 app store. Steam is nowhere to be found here.
                  

Wearable games. See Google Glass and Valve's Terminator Vision. Extrapolate that to wearable glasses that talk via Bluetooth to one's smartphone, with its GPS and compass features, and you'll see the applicability to multi-player games that could make players look really dumb to non-players.

If the console generation lasts up to 2030, certainly by then I believe there's gonna be a huge shift to VR-glasses and VR games. I'd say games are going to made to be VR-ready if not VR-only. Good bye, monitors (at least for games)

Remote controls and tablets are played out, so to speak. Kinect-like devices still have a future, but VR glasses/helmets is where it's at.

Casual "disposable" games will continue to rise in popularity ( games with a shelf life of less than 2 years ).
Game development it's self will continue to slow down - story lines and game play are already really repetitive , imagine how bad it's going to get in 10 years.
Game play will continue to be dumbed down to the point "every one" can play.
The game market will be absolutely flooded by rushed, cheaply made games - much worse than it already is.

Worse, only two months later Microsoft and Sony will steal all attention by announcing their new consoles at E3.

To be fair, I have the feeling Sony won't announce their console the next E3 but the one after that, and they'll slowly start getting pushed into irrelevance...

Sony's console will allow any publisher--at their own discretion--to lock discs in a way that prevents them from being resold.

I have discussed this before with somebody else, the only way this could be ever possible is by either having a custom serial code for each disc which then is checked against a server or by having a writable part in the disc which gets modified the first time it's run to include the serial code of the console where it's first run (and then watch many discs get bricked due to power outages, crashes, defective drives, etc.).

It'd be much easier and probably cheaper to just make the games download-only to achieve the same result.

Microsoft's console will come equipped by default with an improved kinect, or kinect-like device, and its marketing will be mainly directed at casuals.

At the rate it's going, I'd say their console won't be even remotely related to gaming anymore, to the point of just being an unimportant tick in a checklist.

Valve's steam box launches Summer 2014 alongside some new Half Life content, and a new IP

Half-Life 3? *dodges tomatoes*

Steam will try to slowly shift its weight onto Linux, the Mac and its new home console, but none of these paths will succeed. Most hardcore gamers are more likely to switch from Windows 7 to 8 than 7 to Linux.

Most hardcore PC gamers also don't like being as enclosed as Windows 8 pretends to be. Probably Steam won't be able to put much weight on Mac, but it will probably have an impact with Linux, especially when put together to all the other gaming things that are starting to add Linux options at the same time.

Many Linux distros aren't very well supported by the very expensive hardware these gamers have spent hundreds on (see: Gigabyte mobos)

Wait, isn't this the very problem they're trying to fix right now?

Windows 9 will launch in 2015, backwards compatible with Windows 8 but not at all compatible with Windows 7 or prior. You won't be able to access apps except through the Windows 9/8 app store. Steam is nowhere to be found here.

If Microsoft does that Windows is pretty much over.



Now for one wild definition on my end, which I doubt would happen, but hey, who knows =P Consoles and PC may eventually merge into one... just not the way everyone expects. If somebody was to make a console that's open enough to allow anybody make and distribute games for it without permission (but still with the same kind of hardware design as your usual console) and it became popular enough, it could potentially go as far as becoming a new standard for hardware and even shift the current PC hardware (especially if a custom model based on those specs which is more suited for a computer was to be made). Yes, that'd be PC merging with a console instead of the other way.

Based on the current trends from what I know, I'm predicting:

-An increase in casual games
They sell extremely well. There's a very large market for casual games, though they don't have very high of value, the large market makes up for it.

-An increase in social network integration
With the increase in social networking in general in the past five years, I've been seeing more and more games with it. I personally find it really pointless, but it's worth noting.

-An increase in mobile games
Mobile and tablet gaming are also an extremely quickly growing market, some even argue it's the "future of gaming". Mobile games often go hand-in-hand with casual gaming, but there are exceptions.

-An increase in independently developed games
Over the past few years, indie games have become pretty popular since games like Super Meat Boy, Braid, Minecraft, Limbo, etc. have proven to be very successful yet independently developed.

-A decrease in gameplay complexity and an increase in graphics technology in commercially-produced games
Some time ago, some genius investor speculated that good graphics means good money. More and more resources are being aimed towards making games look as good as possible. You can even say it's essential these days. If your game has subpar visuals, it'll be left in the dust. The complexity of the game suffers heavily.

-A heavier focus on "apps"
With Windows 8 coming out, it looks like bad news for PC game developers to me, since it's clearly aimed more towards tablets and mobile phones, meaning most of the applications for Windows 8 will probably be presented in a fun-sized app format.

-More exploration of new types of user I/O
If the Occulus Rift does well, I'm predicting that it'll spark the I/O device market, with more head-mounted display and VR stuff to come out in the years to come. Stuff like this has been around since the Wii came out, but I think it'll start to really grow soon.

The SteamBox seems promising. I haven't read up on it too much, but I believe it'll transform the console market into something a little bit better.

My prediction for console.

• Ouyia will be the home for Indy console developers, while it will go unnoticed at first, the Indy world is a place for innovation and will attract attention as the years go by.
  
  My Predictions for PC:
  
  
  • People will not migrate to windows 8. They will stay with Windows 7, and as time goes by we will see a trickle of users looking for alternatives to PC. Some will go to apple, some will go to Linux, some will go to Windows 8. All in all the Microsoft domination will never be what it was.
    
  • Linux will rise. There are things happening in the world of Linux gaming that will bear fruit in the next few years.
    

People will not migrate to windows 8. They will stay with Windows 7

http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey

4.25% using Windows 8 x64
Total OSX reported (all versions) : 3.26%

"Linux will rise" has been the rallying call since at least 1999 when I first 'discovered' it... 13 years later I'm still waiting...

[quote name='Exodus111' timestamp='1355737073' post='5011605']
People will not migrate to windows 8. They will stay with Windows 7

http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey

4.25% using Windows 8 x64
Total OSX reported (all versions) : 3.26%

"Linux will rise" has been the rallying call since at least 1999 when I first 'discovered' it... 13 years later I'm still waiting...
[/quote]

Pretty much the response of anyone who've used Linux for a long time.
But think about the way Linux looks right now, vs only 5 years ago.
While there are still pillars in place that is obstructing the rise of Linux, modern technology and opportunities in the market are challenging those pillars every day.
And the mere fact that people have been saying Linux will rise for the past 20+ years, speaks to its potential in the market.
Right now we are living in exiting times, changes are on their way that will challenge the old paradigm.
Changes like the constant improvement of hardware and software, making game creation easier today then it has EVER been, look at the rise of 2D indy games, how long before these same possibilities break into the world of 3d gaming? Look at kickstarter.com right now, its happening.
Change is never good for the ruling class, odds are those systems with the best survivability will be the systems of future generations.

[quote name='phantom' timestamp='1355739096' post='5011625']
[quote name='Exodus111' timestamp='1355737073' post='5011605']
People will not migrate to windows 8. They will stay with Windows 7

http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey

4.25% using Windows 8 x64
Total OSX reported (all versions) : 3.26%

"Linux will rise" has been the rallying call since at least 1999 when I first 'discovered' it... 13 years later I'm still waiting...
[/quote]

Pretty much the response of anyone who've used Linux for a long time.
But think about the way Linux looks right now, vs only 5 years ago.
While there are still pillars in place that is obstructing the rise of Linux, modern technology and opportunities in the market are challenging those pillars every day.
And the mere fact that people have been saying Linux will rise for the past 20+ years, speaks to its potential in the market.
Right now we are living in exiting times, changes are on their way that will challenge the old paradigm.
[/quote]

I'm sorry, but linux isn't going to be adopted by the masses, at least not for a very long time, hell, their's still problems with getting people to upgrade from IE6, or windows xp.

In the end, keep believing, and those whom are seriously into computers well adopt, but it's never going to become mainstream unless some company can spear head a ton of pr for it. (and this isn't even talking about the problems breaking into the corporate world for usage other than being a server.)