Speaking about casual users... maybe the recession is really bad here where I live but no casual user I'm in contact with has sufficient budget to afford a Core. After Bulldozer was launched (fail, sure), first-gen Core i3 550 is now in budget but seriously... intel processors... for casual users?
To get a cheap desktop PC here, I'd probably use the
Dell website. When I use their site and answer "How fast does it need to be?" with "Normal - everyday use" (
the lowest option), they suggest me a desktop sporting an
Intel SandyBridge CPU (
worth US$75 by itself) which provides "
Intel HD Graphics" built in, for a total build cost of ~
$700.
For comparison - my gaming PC cost me $2000 and my netbook cost me $700, so I'd view a $700 desktop PC as being quite cheap.
So, going by this, Intel HD Graphics seem set to be a standard feature in most new desktops, even low-end ones -- and I'd start assuming that "casual users" buying PC's from now onwards will have access to (slow) GL2.1/DX10 functionality out of the box, with the minimum amount of performance being comparable to a PS3's GPU.