Quote: Original post by Binomine
Number 2 is not a paranoid conclusion. It is an evidence based conclusion. Clicky.

Of course, Fox News is a good source for hard evidence, seeing how Peter Chernin is well-knowns for being totally unbiased towards vaccinations.

On the other hand, the fact that Mr. Rumsfeld is the main shareholder in one of the companies producing the vaccine and the fact that people have provably being lied to both in regard of the alleged safety of the vaccination, its alleged application, and the composition of the drug (not only by some pharma company's PR department, but also by "trusted" official instiutions like the PEI), it is not surprising that a lot of them aren't particularly happy in taking part in history's largest ever phase II clinical trial.

I am not saying that vaccinations are generally bad, or that this particular vaccination is necessarily bad, but I was not quite sure about the benefit vs harm ratio. Having said that, I've been exposed to H1N1 from last saturday to thursday (sleeping in the same bed with it), and after this, I'm convinced that the whole vaccination panic is totally bollocks.
Every other flu that I've had in my life was worse than this. Had a bit of a headache and a bit of a stiff back for two days, nose was running, an occasional cough, and I had a bit of a hard time getting out of the bed in the morning. But then again, if you're older than 30, that's more or less how it feels every morning anyway :)

I chose not to get vaccinated but I treat my choice of not getting vaccinated like a game choice, where the decision rectangle looks like so:

Choice        |      Best Case         |        Worst Case-------------------------------------------------------------------No Vaccination| No time used up, no    |  Getting the Flu, several              | pain, no flu           |    days of sickness-------------------------------------------------------------------Vaccination   | Time spent waiting for |  Side effects of shot,              | available vaccination, | can still catch flu while              |   as well as time to   | it hasn't kicked in yet              | vaccinate, slight arm  |  +disadvantages of best case              |        pain            |

so I'm treating it as a gamble where I'm playing for the best turnout

Quote: Original post by eedok
I chose not to get vaccinated but I treat my choice of not getting vaccinated like a game choice, where the decision rectangle looks like so:

Choice        |      Best Case         |        Worst Case-------------------------------------------------------------------No Vaccination| No time used up, no    |  Getting the Flu, several              | pain, no flu           |    days of sickness-------------------------------------------------------------------Vaccination   | Time spent waiting for |  Side effects of shot,              | available vaccination, | can still catch flu while              |   as well as time to   | it hasn't kicked in yet              | vaccinate, slight arm  |  +disadvantages of best case              |        pain            |

so I'm treating it as a gamble where I'm playing for the best turnout

Your "Worst Case" seems rather lacking in severity. Where is the "Complications leading to death" for either option?

No Vaccination, Worst Case:

You contract the flu, and your symptoms are severe. You are hospitalized, contract a secondary infection due to poor hospital conditions, have to get all limbs amputated due to complications, then finally recover from both infections. Then, extraterrestrials abduct you, thinking you're some new form of life due to the missing limbs, and subject you to the dreaded anal probe. They realize with disgust that you're just a seriously disfigured human and kick you out the airlock while still in orbit, and you burn up on reentry. Then you wake up in <insert negative-connotation afterlife of your choice here> where you'll remain for eternity.


Vaccination, Worst Case:

The guy giving you the shot is a disgruntled worker and intentionally injects you with a dirty needle, and you contract HIV. THEN you get hospitalized, amputated, abducted-by-aliens, etc.

Quote: Original post by Talroth

Quote: Original post by eedok
I chose not to get vaccinated but I treat my choice of not getting vaccinated like a game choice, where the decision rectangle looks like so:

Choice        |      Best Case         |        Worst Case-------------------------------------------------------------------No Vaccination| No time used up, no    |  Getting the Flu, several              | pain, no flu           |    days of sickness-------------------------------------------------------------------Vaccination   | Time spent waiting for |  Side effects of shot,              | available vaccination, | can still catch flu while              |   as well as time to   | it hasn't kicked in yet              | vaccinate, slight arm  |  +disadvantages of best case              |        pain            |

so I'm treating it as a gamble where I'm playing for the best turnout

Your "Worst Case" seems rather lacking in severity. Where is the "Complications leading to death" for either option?

not listed because it's possible on both sides, thus moot for comparison sakes

Quote: Original post by Nypyren
No Vaccination, Worst Case:

You contract the flu, and your symptoms are severe. You are hospitalized, contract a secondary infection due to poor hospital conditions, have to get all limbs amputated due to complications, then finally recover from both infections. Then, extraterrestrials abduct you, thinking you're some new form of life due to the missing limbs, and subject you to the dreaded anal probe. They realize with disgust that you're just a seriously disfigured human and kick you out the airlock while still in orbit, and you burn up on reentry. Then you wake up in <insert negative-connotation afterlife of your choice here> where you'll remain for eternity.


Vaccination, Worst Case:

The guy giving you the shot is a disgruntled worker and intentionally injects you with a dirty needle, and you contract HIV. THEN you get hospitalized, amputated, abducted-by-aliens, etc.

you make a good point, I did miss out the needle being reused on the worst case side of getting the vaccine

Quote: Original post by eedok
not listed because it's possible on both sides, thus moot for comparison sakes

I mean, I think that's suggestive of a fundamental flaw when you're only considering the best case and worst cases. Both worst cases feature you getting the flu anyway, and both best cases feature you not getting it. Since you're only considering the best and worst cases, rather than the expected value, you pretty much completely ignore the benefits of vaccination.

Quote: Original post by samoth

Quote: Original post by Binomine
Number 2 is not a paranoid conclusion. It is an evidence based conclusion. Clicky.

Of course, Fox News is a good source for hard evidence, seeing how Peter Chernin is well-knowns for being totally unbiased towards vaccinations.

So, a Fox write up of an Associated Press release reporting a University of Georgia's release in a peer reviewed journal.

And you accuse them of bias?

Quote: I was not quite sure about the benefit vs harm ratio.

I think the prisoner's dilemma is the perfect analogy.

If everyone takes the flu shot, it's a net benefit to everyone with herd immunity.

If one person doesn't take the flu shot, it's a net benefit to them.

If everyone doesn't take the flu shot, it's a net loss to everyone.

The numbers are in favor of the selfish move for the individual, but the unselfish move provides the best benefit to everyone.

Quote: Original post by Prefect
What are the motivations of this movement?

While in general, the anti-vaccine movement is extremely small, they are quite vocal and effective in a small number of school districts.

The origins of the movement is the correlation between onset of autism and the time childhood vaccines are given. It's merely coincidental that autism shows it's signs around the same time as MMR and other vaccines are given to children. However, telling a parent who SEES their child get a vaccination and SEES their child develop autism that it is a coincidence is a hard sell. Those parents can easily find others who have seen the same thing, and form "support" groups who all see through the conspiracy. Add some pseudo-scientific jargon, and presto, the modern anti-vax movement.

It's tough call for parents, because on one hand, you have people saying, "Do not vaccinate, vaccines will harm your child" and the others say, "Vaccinate and there is a small chance it will harm your child, but it will prevent a disease you've never seen anyone have." Add the pseduo-science and some authority figures, then it really does seem like vaccines are harmful, since a lot of people do not have the ability to reasonably question scientific authority and #1 appears as if it is way of least harm.

Quote: Original post by Binomine
but it will prevent a disease you've never seen anyone have."

A member of my extended family came down with H1N1, and is now on sixth week on respirator. Only thing I can say about it, it is not a runny nose and something a bit of rest and chicken soup will cure. Those that do come down with it, spend their days worrying about whether they'll be able to take another breath, or whether they'll drown in their own fluids before their heart stops. At least some can be put into artificial comma to ease the agony.

The psychological problem with prevention is, if it succeeds, nothing happens. Imagine 9/11 were prevented. Could anyone ever be convinced that it's possible for four planes to be hijacked simultaneously and crashed into a building? If someone made a movie it would flop due to contrived and absurd plot line.

And in many ways, swine flu is just that. It simply hasn't killed enough people yet. If several million died, there would be much less of an opposition. Of course, vaccines are intended to prevent just that from happening.

There hasn't been a serious epidemic for a long time, and people have forgotten what it means for cities and localities to be wiped out, or left crippled with entire generation marked by disease.

Quote: Original post by cowsarenotevil

Quote: Original post by eedok
not listed because it's possible on both sides, thus moot for comparison sakes

I mean, I think that's suggestive of a fundamental flaw when you're only considering the best case and worst cases. Both worst cases feature you getting the flu anyway, and both best cases feature you not getting it. Since you're only considering the best and worst cases, rather than the expected value, you pretty much completely ignore the benefits of vaccination.

What other benefits to vaccination is there other than reducing your chances of catching it?

Quote: Original post by Antheus

Quote: Original post by Binomine
but it will prevent a disease you've never seen anyone have."

A member of my extended family came down with H1N1, and is now on sixth week on respirator. Only thing I can say about it, it is not a runny nose and something a bit of rest and chicken soup will cure. Those that do come down with it, spend their days worrying about whether they'll be able to take another breath, or whether they'll drown in their own fluids before their heart stops. At least some can be put into artificial comma to ease the agony.

The psychological problem with prevention is, if it succeeds, nothing happens. Imagine 9/11 were prevented. Could anyone ever be convinced that it's possible for four planes to be hijacked simultaneously and crashed into a building? If someone made a movie it would flop due to contrived and absurd plot line.

And in many ways, swine flu is just that. It simply hasn't killed enough people yet. If several million died, there would be much less of an opposition. Of course, vaccines are intended to prevent just that from happening.

There hasn't been a serious epidemic for a long time, and people have forgotten what it means for cities and localities to be wiped out, or left crippled with entire generation marked by disease.

This seems like an extreme case of it, I know 3 people who've had it, my dad who couldn't distinguish it from a regular flu, my brother who pinned the severity of it between the regular flu and norwalk, and a friend who was ineligible to receive the vaccine as he was tested and found he already had H1N1, and wasn't even aware that he contracted it. The severity varies from person to person, but which disease is this not the case for?

I dont get shots cause I'm scared of needles. I really am TERRIFIED of needles.