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Original post by Dmytry
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Original post by LessBread
How much of that so far has been over and above what they would ordinarily do as part of their job maintaining networks?
a lot.
To paraphrase
The Little Rascals, "25 cents? That's almost a million dollars!"
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Original post by Dmytry
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And if it doesn't activate Wednesday then what?
Then it activates some another day, maybe Thursday maybe Friday maybe another week.
Whenever it activates this Wednesday or not depend primarily to whenever worm author wants publicity or not, and we really don't know this way or the other. With all the publicity, it looks like a nice date for demonstration to potential customers.
If publicity is the goal, then it should activate tomorrow, considering all the publicity the worm has been getting.
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Original post by Dmytry
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Then it amounts to hype, ala Y2K.
How so? It'll activate eventually, unlike Y2K. On Wednesday it either does something, or sets time for next update, and we can say with certainty that it'll activate on one of those update days. If conficker botnet really is shrinking, then it makes lot of sense to use it sooner while its still big.
The Conficker author(s) does not control the hype. That's on the media and the hype is that it will activate tomorrow. If it doesn't, then the hype was much ado about nothing. One of the links I posted was to a break through in identifying infestations and patching the vulnerability it exploits. Delaying the activation gives more time to patch vulnerable computers and repair infested ones.
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Original post by Dmytry
We don't know who controls botnet, we don't know what it is to be used for, and we only know that on wednesday a new executable is run, and we don't know what new executable will do - will it DDOS someone, or will it just sit wait for update on 1st May, or will it implement capacity to update on any day. What we know with near certainty is that one of those update days, it'll do something. Heck, we don't even know if there are "personalized" strains of conficker stealing data from important people.
It seems to me that the "personalized strain" hypothesis is similar to my Chinese diversion hypothesis, the difference being the target. In both cases, the potential threat of a massive botnet diverts attention away from the actual goal.
"I thought what I'd do was, I'd pretend I was one of those deaf-mutes." - the Laughing Man