Right now there are quite a number of MMOGs available, and a load more in development. What I´ve been wondering about is how the intended consumer group for these games looks, which boils down to the question of "who´s going to buy that game?". Some of the titles, such as Star Wars Galaxies will draw enough customers by brand name alone, but smaller or more focused ones will (imo) run into serious trouble once the market is saturated (which I think will happen pretty soon, because very few MMOG players play more than one game at a time, and switching does not occur very often). So, I think that many companies will go the way of the dodo for investing in MMOG games that simply weren´t good enough. The main problem is that with MMOGs there simply is no second place (I´ve tested "Jumpgate", a nicely done space game that reminds a lot of "Elite". Nice, but due to some minor flaws not outstanding - they´re already giving away free downloads with one-month trials). So do any of you know of any freely available market research in that direction? How do you think the situation will look like in two years time?

I agree. SW:G is a guaranteed hit (unless it''s a BC3000AD - but don''t get me into that) but most of the others are going to be overlooked. And Jumpgate is indeed cool. Elite...but with a few questionable design ideas.

The massive multiplayer market never has been viable for the dollars thrown at it, and yes you are right as a result, we''ll continue to see companies go under in this area.

Much of the hype seemed to be driven by the US who seemed to think everyman and his dog were going to instantly jump on broadband connections when the opposite is true.

quote: Original post by Anonymous Poster
The massive multiplayer market never has been viable for the dollars thrown at it, and yes you are right as a result, we''ll continue to see companies go under in this area.

Much of the hype seemed to be driven by the US who seemed to think everyman and his dog were going to instantly jump on broadband connections when the opposite is true.

The success of the MMOG market has little if anything to do with the rate of broadband adoption in the US. UO, EQ, and AC (to say nothing of M59, Gemstone, or others) all became successful prior to significant broadband penetration.

And as for the viability of this market, it''s significantly more viable than the standard PC-retail games market, thanks to the magic of recurring subscription revenue. The only problem is that these games are also much more difficult to design and develop than a stand-alone game, and the all-important service aspect of the games has repeatedly thrown developers for a loop.

That said, I believe the key to the continuing success of the MMOG market lies in expanding the player base. Fantasy and science fiction are narrow niches -- superheroes even moreso. Even SW:G probably won''t see the number of players that The Sims Online will, and TSO will probably bring in significantly more new players who haven''t also played one of the existing MMOGs. But: as hard as it is to design a MMOG, designing a MMOG for casual gamers is even more difficult. So yes, this market is viable, and growing, but it''s also not an easy one to develop for -- the risk of having a game like Anarchy Online, WWII Online, Jumpgate, etc., is high.

Mike Sellers

Online Alchemy: Fire + Structure = Transformation

quote: Original post by archetypist

Original post by Anonymous Poster
The massive multiplayer market never has been viable for the dollars thrown at it, and yes you are right as a result, we''ll continue to see companies go under in this area.

Much of the hype seemed to be driven by the US who seemed to think everyman and his dog were going to instantly jump on broadband connections when the opposite is true.

The success of the MMOG market has little if anything to do with the rate of broadband adoption in the US. UO, EQ, and AC (to say nothing of M59, Gemstone, or others) all became successful prior to significant broadband penetration.

And as for the viability of this market, it''s significantly more viable than the standard PC-retail games market, thanks to the magic of recurring subscription revenue. The only problem is that these games are also much more difficult to design and develop than a stand-alone game, and the all-important service aspect of the games has repeatedly thrown developers for a loop.

That said, I believe the key to the continuing success of the MMOG market lies in expanding the player base. Fantasy and science fiction are narrow niches – superheroes even moreso. Even SW:G probably won''t see the number of players that The Sims Online will, and TSO will probably bring in significantly more new players who haven''t also played one of the existing MMOGs. But: as hard as it is to design a MMOG, designing a MMOG for casual gamers is even more difficult. So yes, this market is viable, and growing, but it''s also not an easy one to develop for – the risk of having a game like Anarchy Online, WWII Online, Jumpgate, etc., is high.

Mike Sellers

Online Alchemy: Fire + Structure = Transformation


So you can then name a MMOG that is in development and is primarily targeting and/or adequately supporting non-broadband users (which are by far and away the largest section. NO, of course you cant. Because they all give inadequate support to non-broadband and then state everyone will eventually migrate. BTW: I''m unsure why your quoting a couple of financial failures. Surely the purpose of a MMOG is to make money so that it can stay in business.

Basically what your saying is while we may lose on every transaction, we will make it up in volume. Not a chance.

quote: Original post by Anonymous Poster
So you can then name a MMOG that is in development and is primarily targeting and/or adequately supporting non-broadband users (which are by far and away the largest section. NO, of course you cant. Because they all give inadequate support to non-broadband and then state everyone will eventually migrate. BTW: I'm unsure why your quoting a couple of financial failures. Surely the purpose of a MMOG is to make money so that it can stay in business.

Okay, Anonymous, you don't know what you're talking about. That's pretty clear.

None of the new/upcoming "big name" MMOGs -- AC2, EQ2, E&B, TSO, etc. -- assume a broadband market. Most assume a 56K dialup user. I know this because I know the companies involved and many of the people involved. They're not stupid. They know where their market is, and it's not in broadband users -- not yet.

As for quoting "financial failures" in the last part of my post, I was talking about the difficulties of this market on the design and especially the service side. While there have been a few ill-conceived failures, those games that have thought through their design, technical, and service requirements have ROIs that far exceed that for any other game. So much for the market "not being viable" as you said earlier.

Mike Sellers

Online Alchemy: Fire + Structure = Transformation

[edited by - archetypist on November 26, 2002 11:20:02 AM]

The market for MMOGs is growing. There is no doubting that. With consoles going online and broadband getting higher penetration rates, MMOs are forever a staple genre in the game industry. Its not a fad.

I will agree that there will be a glut of failures in the coming year. There are many reasons for this, the least of which is the size of the market.

Legal issues that our current laws cannot deal with such as virtual property ownership or trademark rights on in-game real world properties.(ie McDs and Intel in TSO)

Developer/Publisher underestimation of the requirements to build a successful MMO.

Bad MMO design that doesn''t pay attention to previous failures and/or the experiences of the MUD community. Unfocused, publisher promoted copy designs fall here as well. (ala the race to clone EQ)

Budgetary problems...

These are but a few of the perilous obstacles that face developers of MMOs. The market size is the least of their worries and the thousands of MUDs developed over the years is proof enough. Capitalism will do its work here, but many games will survive in a niche. Even a $10 million dollar project can break even on 75k - 85k subscribers which is less than the number of subscribers even the horribly launched AO has.


Kressilac

[idiocy removed]

[edited by - DavidRM on November 27, 2002 1:29:30 PM]

[response to idiocy removed as well]

[edited by - DavidRM on November 27, 2002 1:30:00 PM]

[Can''t think of any idiocy to include]

The MMOG market is just like the film market or the boxed software market. A few big hits surrounded by many products that don''t make their money back or only just break-even.

MMOG will fail for all the same reasons that boxed software fails (bad design, bad implementation, good design/implementation that just fails to capture the customers attention). On top of that are potential problems unique to the market sector - failure to provide sufficient contant to keep the game fresh, failure to support the product properly, failure to address cheating etc.

Personally I doubt that MMOG will ever be really mass market because they require too large an investment of time from the user. Gamers will play these games instead of doing their homework, eating, sleeping, going out. The casual/non-gamer has other priorities in their lives.

Dan Marchant
Obscure Productions